A failed palace coup d’état?

no	DUN	2011	2006	17	LAYAR	1916	2677
1	TG DATU	2316	4136	18	BUKIT SABAN	2774	1828
2	PANTAI DAMAI	5071	2164	19	KELAKA	5170	5929
3	DEMAK LAUT	3752	0	20	BELAWAI	4546	0
4	TUPONG	4551	2164	21	SEMOP	4250	0
5	SAMARIANG	5431	2488	22	DARO	3197	0
6	SATOK	2800	2798	23	JEMORENG	2926	1710
7	ASAJAYA	4489	5063	24	MACHAN	1629	2289
8	MUARA TUANG	7843	6327	25	NANGKA	5302	0
9	TARAT	1995	3256	26	DALAT	4990	0
10	TEBEDU	4066	4256	27	BALINGIAN	5154	5726
11	KEDUP	2265	0	28	KATIBAS	2256	3332
12	SADONG JAYA	2934	0	29	JEPAK	3128	3179
13	SIMUNJAN	4048	3350	30	KEMENA	3349	1572
14	SEBUYAU	2276	2448	31	LAMBIR	1521	0
15	LINGGA	2506	1870	32	MARUDI	3202	4284
16	BETING MARO	391	0	33	TELANG USAN	845	0
				34	BUKIT KOTA	5061	3229
				35	BUKIT SARI	5063	5275
					TOTAL	125024	74852

Pardon the design of the above table. I have tabulated the results where PBB candidates contested.

What's the point? The point is to show a cause for Najib's headache. Given the facts of the elections, how to ask Taib Mahmud to go? His PBB has done better than UMNO. His people want him. He can always say, it's not that I don't want to go, but the people still want him. It's difficult to overturn his logic.

In 2011, the majority votes were 125,024. In 2006, the majority votes totaled 74,852. In absolute terms, the majority gained by PBB candidates was bigger than in 2006. That's a 167% increase in total majority votes.

PBB candidates actually increase their majority in 23 DUNs out of the 35 seats contested. That's 66% success rate.

So how will Najib enforce his promise to the Sarawak people that Taib Mahmud is going to leave office?

Taib Mahmud has every reason not to leave or if he wants to leave, he will do so on his own terms and conditions.

All his candidates won. He actually increased the overall majority by 167% compared to the 2006 figures. And his candidates actually increased their majority in 23 out of the 35 DUNs. A number of seats can be said to experience no major changes.

Taib Mahmud won't leave, unless it's enforced by extra constitutional ways or some extraordinary methods.

Why should Taib Mahmud leave? His PBB did better than even UMNO in the 2008 general elections. UMNO couldn't even get majority Malay support in the 2008 elections. Out of the over 5 million Malay votes in 2008, UMNO candidates managed to get only slightly over 2 million votes.

So on what basis can Najib enforce his promise? He can only do so by persuasion. Can he charge Taib Mahmud for corruption even if he has evidence? He can't- because to do so, would be admitting that even though he knows about Taib, he allowed Taib to stand for reelection.

Taib is not an UMNO member. Therefore the UMNO president can't use the party to leverage his desire to see Taib Mahmud out.

What are we going to see then? We will see a stubborn Taib Mahmud who will not leave because he can justifiably say, his people still want him. He has the numbers to back his claim.

Najib has the Taib Mahmud problem to contend with.

The haste by which Taib Mahmud got himself sworn into office caused a lot of consternations and suspicions. Why was he in great hurry? Were there moves to appoint another person other than Taib Mahmud? Was Putrajaya linked to the muffled talks that a palace coup d'état was to take place on the 16^th of April?

Posted by sakmongkol AK47