Undercurrents shift from S'wak over to Umno, presaging a battle royale

With the Sarawak polls over, the next immediate focus of attention although this may be kept out of the government mainstream media is whither Umno and in particular, Prime Minister Najib Razak?

Such a question may seem strange given that Najib’s party did not field even a single candidate for the 71 seats up for grabs in Sarawak, the country’s largest state by land mass and perhaps the richest in terms of natural resources such as oil and high-grade timber.

But Umno is the boss at BN, the coalition that rules the federal government. BN has 13 components including the Sarawakian parties PBB, PRS, SUPP and SPDP. And it was Chief Minister Taib Mahmud’s PBB that retained Sarawak for BN – keeping the huge income stream chugging along from state to the federal government.

Should the Sarawak cash cow fall into Pakatan hands, then the Umno-controlled federal government will lose this wealth. It will be in serious trouble and the BN will surely fall. This is why Umno cannot but take enormous interest in what happens at Sarawak and why it has always tried to control the state.

But now that Sarawakians have increased their support for the Pakatan Rakyat led by Opposition Leader Anwar Ibrahim and cut that for BN by 8 per cent to 55, will Umno allow Najib to call for snap general elections?

With a 2013 deadline not far off, it may have no choice. But from the trend of the Sarawak results, Najib is unlikely to regain the two-thirds parliamentary majority lost in 2008 and this will set the stage for his ouster from the Umno hot seat. Pundits say he is now plotting to head this off.

“Of course, there are ramifications going right to the top. The Umno supreme council cannot be unconcerned about the fall in voter support for the BN,” PKR vice president Tian Chua told Malaysia Chronicle.

“It was pretty clear that Sarawakians rejected Najib. Few of the Chinese there were interested in his 1Malaysia or paid attention to the sex video conspiracy or the Raja Petra attempts to discredit Anwar and thereby Pakatan.”

Umno again tried to get its claws around PBB

Indeed, it is no secret that Umno has long wanted to extend its footprint into Sarawak and get its hands on the state’s wealth of resources. It has been trying to get PBB to merge with it, just as it has been courting PAS in a bid to cut down the Pakatan's growing influence.

But all this may no longer be possible. Najib has antagonised the fabulously wealthy Taib and his minders are now worried about the fallout that is bound to take place.

Already, the buzz is that Taib may fund Najib’s deputy Muhyiddin Yassin to challenge him for the Umno presidency when party polls are held next year.

Umno was due to hold party elections this year but on the basis that he may call for snap general elections, Najib had managed to convince the Umno supreme council to postpone it by 18 months until next year. Some see this as a calculated move by his camp to prolong his hold on the Umno presidency and his term in office as prime minister.

“When Najib announced that he and his federal Cabinet would camp out in Sarawak to defend the state, the warning signals were out. Taib is not just another Chief Minister like Zambry Kadir, Ahmad Said, Ali Rustam or one of those Umno leaders that Najib can lord around,” Eddie Wong, a PKR stalwart and long-time political watcher toldMalaysia Chronicle.

“Taib is a force unto himself. PBB belongs to him and he is one of the world’s richest man. It was foolish of Najib to take the advice and try to usurp Taib in his home-ground. They may smile for the cameras, but Taib won’t forgive or forget. He knows what Najib and Umno are up to and this is why he refused to concede and even publicly snubbed Najib.”

Is Umno and Najib any better than Taib?

The scale with which Taib has enriched and benefited himself and his family is certainly envied by many of the Umno warlords. Not surprisingly, there has been a concerted call for Taib to step down accompanied by an avalanche of corruption allegations against him. It is hard to tell which are sincerely-motivated and which are instigated by the Umno elite for their own greedy interests.

But while Sarawakians, or at least the better-informed who live in the urban areas, have condemned Taib for allegedly plundering their nation’s wealth, they are just as suspicious of Najib and Umno.

“Ask any Sarawakian, especially the Chinese, do they trust Umno? Why not? And the answer will be, Umno is racist and has also plundered the peninsula’s wealth. It is also bullying the non-Malays in the peninsula and MCA and Gerakan are just like SUPP,” PKR MP for Gopeng Lee Boon Chye toldMalaysia Chronicle.

“Then ask them, do they trust Najib? And they will say, he is just as bad. Apart from corruption, there is also the Altantuya murder in which he was implicated. So, really, Sarawakians are caught between 3 big devils. The rural Sarawakians have opted for the devil they know, which is Taib. Those in the urban areas have chosen the best solution, which is to cut off all links with the past and go for a new beginning with Pakatan.”

But what about Umno, will there be a new beginning?

Many pundits, including foreign analysts, see the party as on the point of implosion. Najib's ouster of his predecessor Abdullah Badawai in late 2008, without undertaking any real reforms since then, has only kept the lid on the massive infighting taking place in Umno. But the pressure cooker can explode any time, given the huge vacuum in talent at the topmost levels.

According to those in Najib’s camp, there is nobody else suitable for the country’s top job except him. But an increasing number of Umno members as well as other Malaysians are now openly scoffing at that soft-sell.

The solution, they say, does not lie with Najib, whose administration and personal record are marked by huge sex and corruption scandals. He is also widely direspected for his reliance on showy public relations and conspiraces targeting Anwar.

“Imminent desperation and downfall,” PAS MP for Bukit Gantang Nizar Jamaluddin told Malaysia Chronicle.

Taib ups the ante

Nizar was commenting on the latest blitz from the Najib camp, namely the sudden emergence of blogger Raja Petra Kamaruddin, who not only discredited Anwar but also Kelantan Umno veteran Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah.

Many see it as the latest ploy to keep Najib in power, while squeezing out Muhyddin and Razaleigh - the only two Malay leaders left in Umno with sufficient profile to take on the top job other than Anwar, who was former deputy prime minister before he was pushed out by ex-premier Mahathir Mohamad.

All the shenanigans have not been lost on Taib, who even as he sits thousands of kilometres away in his capital city of Kuching, is busily mulling the odds.

A late-minute attempt by Najib to make up with Taib, by heaping praises on him and justifying to Sarawakians why Taib's resignation would bode ill for them, has failed to soothe ruffled feathers. Taib and his family, especially his sons, are not unknown for their vindictive streak.

“Najib's politicking was very clumsy and you can see from the way he tried to steal the limelight from Taib, he wasn't thinking carefully. In the end, it only benefits Muhyiddin. As PM, Najib should have asked himself, is he strong enough to push out Taib? If he sets Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission on Taib, and Taib pulls out of BN, what happens to BN, Umno and him? If Taib gets fed up and starts to think, 'instead of Umno controlling me, why don't I control Umno instead?' It's not at all difficult, Taib just needs to install his puppet by using money and he has a lot of that," said Tian.

“Now, Taib ups the ante on Najib and goes to the polling booth in a Rolls Royce which Najib doesn’t even have. It makes Najib look like a fraud to the ordinary Malaysians. Instead of standing up for the poor Sarawakians and fighting corruption in the country, he ends up looking weak and actively supporting Taib in further misdeeds. To the foreign community, as far as they are concerned, there is more than enough evidence to nail Taib. They also see Najib as weak and two-timing. How to hold onto the Umno presidency?”

- Malaysia Chronicle