Economy still determines outcome of GE, say Pakatan, BN

By Shazwan Mustafa Kamal

July 19, 2011

KUALA LUMPUR, July 19 — The next general election will still be won or lost on the economy as both Pakatan Rakyat (PR) and Barisan Nasional (BN) leaders believe that sound economic reform policies will effectively garner maximum voter support.

Leaders from both sides of the political divide have agreed that while Bersih’s electoral reform demands are important and should be addressed, the Najib administration would still be able to ward off criticisms and win back support if it focused on reforming and addressing economic issues, specifically rising inflation and commodity prices.

Pua said many ‘economic benchmarks’ were not within the government’s control. — File pic

The BN government’s image has taken a severe beating following the July 9 rally where tens of thousands poured into the city, resulting in nearly 1,700 arrests, scores injured and the death of a PKR division leader’s husband. Its suppression of the Bersih rally drew widespread condemnation from the global media, with UK’s The Guardian going as far as to compare the Najib government to ousted Egyptian leader Hosni Mubarak’s regime.

“To be honest, if the economy performs very well — high commodity prices, low inflation, increasing wages and improved employment opportunities — then really, political abuses take a back seat,” DAP national publicity secretary Tony Pua told The Malaysian Insider.

But Pua argued that the the current administration under Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak was not in full control of the economy, and charged that many “economic benchmarks” — global commodity prices like crude oil, natural gas, rubber, palm oil — were not within the government’s control.

The Petaling Jaya Utara MP said that many key policies have not been “followed through” due to race-based objections from political groups.

“Major privatisations contracts are still being awarded on a direct negotiation basis without a credible open tender system. Policy ‘pillars’ such as the Approved Permit (AP) system for cars and a host of other imported goods remain in the selected hands of connected companies in the guise of ‘Bumiputera development’,” said Pua, adding that unless the government addressed its economic reform plans seriously, its policies would backfire.

BN deputy minister Datuk S.K. Devamany feels that part of the reason why there was an overwhelming public response to the Bersih rally was because ordinary citizens were “frustrated” with the current economic conditions in the country.

Abdul Rahman claimed the importance of stabilising the economy had been ‘drowned’ by the Bersih rally.

“There is frustration because inflation is growing, and at the same time income must come in so that people can spend on essential items, to live and feed their families. Voters, especially the youth, want jobs that can enable them to afford to purchase a home — the prices of houses right now are just crazy,” Devamany told The Malaysian Insider.

The MIC vice-president believes that BN has an advantage in the matter, and insisted that the Najib administration is working “round-the-clock” to tackle the issue of high living costs.

“We need to make sure people can earn money and have proper jobs, which is what the prime minister is trying to do through the Government Transformation Plan (GTP) and Economic Transformation Plan (ETP).

“At the end of the day, we in the government must make sure that the ordinary man on the street does not feel the pressure of an economic crisis,” added Devamany.

Umno backbencher Datuk Abdul Rahman Dahlan claimed the importance of stabilising the economy had been “drowned” by the Bersih rally, and accused the federal opposition of “conveniently” playing up the movement’s demands to deflect its inability of presenting an alternative economic plan to Malaysians.

Rafizi said there cannot be economic reform without political reform.

“I agree that ultimately the economy will play a major part in any election, electoral (victory) will be determined by a government which can manage the economy in times of trouble,” he told The Malaysian Insider.

According to Abdul Rahman, BN had the “upper hand” in the matter as PR has not been able to offer a “tangible, workable economic policy” as an election manifesto.

‘You can throw stones at BN and attack and criticise our economic plans, but we should also put Pakatan to task. What is your plan PR? Where is your alternative budget? The Buku Jingga does not solve specific problems, at its best it only offers superficial economic solutions, without proper numbers and figures that we can crunch on and scrutinise,” said the Kota Belud MP.

PKR strategic director Rafizi Ramli, on the other hand, feels that electoral support in the next general election will be determined by the coalition which is able to present both viable economic reforms and address Bersih’s electoral demands.

“There cannot be economic reform without political reform, it goes hand in hand. While I agree that the next elections will focus on bread-and-butter issues, if BN chooses to ignore Bersih’s demands, that will deliver votes to PR then,” he told The Malaysian Insider.

The three parties that make up PR won more than a third of the 222-seat federal Parliament and four more states in Election 2008, which was held four months after the November 2007 Bersih rally that called for electoral reforms amid a weak economy.