Will Najib stay and battle or leave?

Is the Lahad Datu incident a planned disturbance to allow Najib to declare a temporary state of emergency to enable him to clamp down on the opposition leaders?

COMMENT

Umno was caught off guard when the people punished it in the 12th general election. The disastrous results of the 2008 general election alarmed former premier Dr Mahathir Mohamad.

The 2008 results showed that the opposition may be able to unseat the Umno-led government in the 13th general election, propelled by people’s power.

This reality is playing itself out in the latest political developments engulfing Najib.

In Sabah, the people there are very dissatisfied with the federal government policies, especially on the issue of large numbers of foreigners being given instant Malaysian ICs.

Even with the instant ICs, there is no assurance that these foreigners would vote for Umno-Barisan Nasional in the coming polls.

In which case the much vaunted BN fixed-deposits of Sabah voters – locals and Filipinos – alike are now ready to punish Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak and his Umno.

In Sarawak, with Taib Mahmud still at the helm, the political scenario could turn fluid where the BN component parties would adopt a wait-and-see approach, depending on the outcome of the election.

The Chinese voters are ever ready to punish Najib and Taib by voting out Sarawak United People’s Party (SUPP). The natives may jump on the bandwagon to vote in Pakatan Rakyat in a number of constituencies.

In Peninsular Malaysia, the BN component parties, especially Gerakan and MCA, are as good as dead.

Within Umno there are two factions trying to outdo one another.

Planned disturbances?

Come election time, there would be acts of sabotage and counter-sabotage against candidates of both factions.

The Chinese, Indian and Malay voters are ready to punish Najib, Umno, Mahathir and his Perkasa.

Najib, as such, is being engulfed by uncertainties and threats of people’s punishment.

He has to prepare a contingency plan that will empower him to clip the opposition’s wings. This will probably be carried out in between the dissolution of Parliament and the election dates.

Once the dates are announced many believe Najib may deploy the false flag tactic by creating superficial controlled disturbances in certain parts of the country and blame them on the opposition.

This is just an excuse to declare a temporary state of emergency to enable him to clamp down on the opposition leaders and subsequently lift it.

These Najib-hatched “incidents” would give him an excuse to declare a state of emergency later – thereby suspending polling temporarily – accuse and consequently arrest the Pakatan leaders.

Because Najib is now so hard-pressed, he may choose the general election date with a two-pronged strategy: remind the Malays to stay united under Umno or lose political power; and scare the other communities of race riots unless they support the BN.

I leave it to the readers to guess that fateful date.

Najib must decide fast

However, choosing the general election date on such conditions could backfire on Umno.

He is also uncertain as to whether the Election Commission (EC) can make it through with the phantom and postal voters and the foreigners with forged ICs.

Najib is concerned about the wrath of the voters and the might of people’s power.

Should Pakatan and Bersih stage another nationwide protest, it could turn into a full-blown people’s uprising which could engulf his government.

He is worried about the outcome of such confrontation. Then there is pressure from Mahathir to force him to resign and give way to Muhyiddin Yassin.

On this issue, Najib has two options: the first is to prepare for the mother of all battles or to abandon the battle plan and let Muhyiddin and Mahathir take over.

Like Mahathir, Najib and Rosmah Mansor have already reached the plateau of felicity.

Why take the risk of going into the battlefield and lose everything that they have? Najib has to decide fast while the exit door is still wide open.

Awang Abdillah is a political analyst, writer and FMT columnist.