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Tuesday, January 17, 2017

Bangkok Post's Commentary On "Ringgit Rout"

A friend sent me this. Thank you. This is from the Bangkok Post in Thailand. It is a very long and carefully analysed article. If you have the time, please do read the whole article at this link.  I have shortened it for quicker reading. 

The interesting thing is the foreign media are paying close attention to what is happening in Malaysia. Even the Bangkok Post has come out with this yard of print.  
  
In a shrinking and globalised world, we cannot just sit still and watch our neighbor's house burning down. The fire may spread to our homes too. 

The world will also not sit still and watch irresponsible neighbours playing with fire.  Have you heard of the US Navy or the US Marines? They usually keep themselves busy in other countries that have messed up. 

Anyway here is the Bangkok Post :



perfect storm is gathering around the Ringgit
value at risk from protracted economic slump 
aggravated by political scandal  
Ringgit sell off can have contagious effect on neighbours
sparking capital outflows and compounding financial volatility

Najib fighting tooth and nail to block investigation of 1MDB
six countries investigating dubious 1MDB   

foreign holdings of M'sian government bonds 48.4% (US$40b)
Ringgit fell 22.8% vs US$ since 2015



My comments :  This chart below here says it all. Each time the Ringgit falls, Bank Negara sells US$ and other foreign currencies which they hold to push up the Ringgit. It does not work. Finally BOTH the Ringgit and our foreign reserves go down.



Malaysia's fundamentals very weak
low foreign reserves, weak public investment
ebbing fiscal revenues, bearish outlook for domestic politics
low oil prices

unemployment 3.6%
private debt is 90% of GDP

My comments :  Between 1998 to 2016, India's foreign reserves have jumped 12 times. South Korea's have jumped 7 times. Thailand is 6 times. Malaysia is the least,  increased 3.7 times only.  Finally Bangkok Post says :

transparency in government is vital in shoring up investment sentiment

My comments :  Malaysia is now known as a kleptocracy.  The US DOJ said it plainly that MOI is a thief.  The US DOJ said, they used public funds like their "personal piggy bank".

The country is led by a person who is recognised as being a thief.  

The Ringgit will crash further because this person is still in power.   I think that is what the Bangkok Post is saying.   

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