Analyst: Adenan unlikely to trade on Najib’s plight

The Prime Minister would have to consider the Sarawak Chief Minister’s predicament as well as he readies for state polls

KUCHING: Malaysian political scientist James Chin, who heads the Asia Institute in Tasmania, Australia, has ruled out Sarawak Chief Minister Adenan Satem taking advantage of embattled Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak’s plight as he fights for his political life.

As things stand, it appears, Adenan will not have the Chinese community with him, the question that remains is whether the non-Muslim Orang Asal, particularly the Iban, will stay with him.

“The media did not fully comprehend what I was saying,” clarified Chin in an email response. “One reporter asked me about the non-Muslim Orang Asal seats in relation to the next state election.”

What he said was that BN (Barisan Nasional) will win due to simple maths. “With multiple candidates in non-Muslim Orang Asal seats, eg DAP, PKR, independents, UPP, Teras, Sarawak Workers Party (SWP) vs official BN and official Pakatan Rakyat, BN will likely win.”

Even if the independents, Teras or UPP win, they are BN-friendly as well so Adenan wins, he added. “Pakatan Rakyat will only have a chance if it’s a direct fight. This scenario does not even take into account the fake independents.”

Elsewhere, coming back to the Najib factor, Adenan can only raise expectations, albeit abstract, like celebrating July 22 as Sarawak Independence Day and announcing that his administration is in negotiations with the Najib administration for full autonomy and for Sarawak to be recognised as an equal partner of Sabah and Malaya in the Federation.

Chin was widely quoted in the social media as saying that generally BN component parties stay on the sidelines in case of any infighting in Umno, the backbone of the ruling coalition, until the situation becomes clearer on the ground.

“Adenan could use the fact that Najib needs Parti Pesaka Bumiputera Bersatu (PBB), the backbone of BN Sarawak, as a strong partner to retain his hold on power,” said Chin. “However, such an approach would be fraught with risks in case Najib falls from power.”

Generally, he added, BN component parties recognise that Umno must stay strong for the coalition to remain effective. “If Umno is strong, BN is strong. If Umno is weak, BN is weak.”

“The component parties all know this. So, they will not rock the boat.”

Still, added Chin, Adenan cannot afford to remain empty-handed under Najib and the Prime Minister may have to recognise this. “So, if Adenan is to look like some sort of local hero in the eyes of the people, Najib has to concede some ground on certain issues.”

The political scientist thinks that the oil royalty question is one area where Adenan would have to show some results. Najib, he continued, may meet him half way and agree to an upward revision from the present measly 5 per cent to 10 per cent, albeit still short of the 20 per cent the state wants.

One problem for Najib, said Chin, is that if he agrees to revise the oil royalty for Sarawak, he would have to do the same thing for Sabah and there will be demands by Kelantan and Terengganu, two other oil-producing states. Sabah, like Sarawak, at the moment gets 5 per cent as well.

State elections are due in Sarawak by mid-2016 but may be called earlier if Adenan can get his house in order. Teras and UPP, breakaways from two BN Sarawak component parties viz. SPDP and Supp, have to be accommodated in the administration at least until the polls come.

Adenan had earlier pledged support for Najib to continue as Prime Minister in the face of determined attempts by former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad to oust him from power.