Could PAS give Malacca BN shot in arm needed to hold snap polls?

 

Malacca BN’s decision not to call a snap election just yet has raised questions about whether the coalition is not confident enough in its chances, unlike in Johor.

While Chief Minister Ab Rauf Yusoh said polls were not needed yet, a more likely reason is that BN fears a repeat of the thrashing it received in Malacca during the 2022 general election, where it failed to win any of the state’s six parliamentary seats.

A look at how voting patterns changed in Tanjung Bidara and Merlimau - the seats of Rauf and Umno Youth chief Dr Akmal Saleh - reveals these concerns.

In Tanjung Bidara, which Rauf narrowly won in the 2021 state election with 49.1 percent of ballots and a slim majority of 364 votes, BN was relegated to second place during the 2022 federal polls.

An analysis of polling district data from electiondata.my showed that during the 2022 general election, 50.9 percent of Tanjung Bidara voters backed Perikatan Nasional’s Mas Ermieyati Samsudin for the Masjid Tanah parliamentary seat, while only 41.1 percent voted for BN.

In Merlimau, which Akmal won comfortably with 58.4 percent of votes in 2021, BN’s vote share dropped to 38.5 percent during the federal polls, followed by Pakatan Harapan (30.5 percent) and PN (30.1 percent).

Merlimau is part of the Jasin parliamentary constituency, which PAS won for PN.

If such voting patterns persisted or even worsened for BN, it could spell trouble for the coalition’s chances at retaining the state if snap polls were called.

Possible tie-up

However, a possible white knight has emerged that could help BN survive another election massacre.

PAS last night decided to end political cooperation with Bersatu - believed to be the first step towards opening the door to cooperation with both BN-Umno and the Bersatu splinter group led by former deputy president Hamzah Zainudin.

In the wake of the breakup, Malacca PAS communications committee member Khairuddin Ab Hassan said the Islamist party and Umno should reunite for the sake of Malay unity.

This echoes calls by Akmal, who on Sunday repeated his desire to see PAS and Umno work together again, also in the name of Malay unity.

Speaking to Malaysiakini, political analyst Syaza Shukri concurred that PAS could be the key for Umno to pull the trigger on snap polls.

“When the 2021 state election happened, there were so many factors that helped BN because it was during Covid-19; people were fatigued, and the low turnout helped BN.

“But yet, for parliamentary seats in 2022 and even 2018, Harapan did well. In 2022, Harapan’s main competition was PN, not even BN.

“So yes, maybe if Umno decides to work with PAS, maybe they would feel more secure to at least get the Malay votes,” the International Islamic University Malaysia political science associate professor said, adding that PAS had gained a significant foothold in Malacca in 2022.

Of the three parliamentary seats in Malacca held by PN, PAS won two.

However, Syaza said that if Umno clashes with PAS, this could benefit Harapan due to a split in Malay votes. - Mkini