The civil war of Umno and Bersatu

 

For the first time, sustained attacks and retaliation between Umno and Bersatu have been brought to the centre. What has been simmering under the surface for months is now open for all to see.

In a series of divisional meetings, Umno divisions – representing grassroots voices – have overwhelmingly opposed working with Bersatu, and as a consequence, to not give away seats to their enemy. In a concerted cry, many Umno members were pushing for a general election, as early as March, so that they could once and for all rule on their own without the shameful piggybacking on Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin’s Bersatu.

This is in direct contrast to Minister Mohd Redzuan Md Yusof’s earlier remark on how nationwide elections would likely be held only in 2023 - running the full length of the term. This is potentially a Freudian slip, revealing the genuine insecurity of Muhyiddin, who understands that not only would he not be prime minister after Umno takes over in GE15, but Bersatu would most likely die a natural death.

Sensing the move to shake the boat, Muhyiddin’s government is starting to displace Umno men. Kelantan Umno chief Ahmad Jazlan Yaakub resigned his position as Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) chairperson. Ironically, he uttered words of “dignity” over positions, the central value of Bersatu’s formation. A turf war has also erupted at Prasarana when it was revealed that Umno’s Tajuddin Abdul Rahman (Prasarana chairperson) is withholding RM700 million of payment to LRT3 contractors.

On top of that, Perak Umno has also alleged that Bersatu has been paying Umno members to join their party or set up branches. The running rate, according to Umno Youth chief Asyraf Wajdi Dusuki, was up to RM100 per member signup, and RM3,000 or RM5,000 per branch. This was corroborated by Umno Perak MP Nazri Aziz, who said that Bersatu offered up to RM20,000 to Umno members to set up Bersatu branches.

According to Umno, the instruction by Bersatu was to create up to 8,000 branches nationwide in a short space of time. And this comes at a price that Bersatu was willing to pay to make happen.

However, Bersatu had retaliated immediately. Its information chief Wan Saiful Wan Jan denied the allegation and threatened legal action. Perak Bersatu secretary Zainol Fadzi Paharuddin similarly refuted this claim.

Both sides were confident; one side claiming to have solid evidence, another unhesitant to pursue legal recourse to stem escalation.

Severing ties

What is most interesting is not the veracity of these claims or the discovery of. After all, political parties are the home of money politics. What is most important is the aggression and harshness of combat, indicating lines that are crossed to the inevitable severance.

All of this may not be to Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi’s own design. His brand of politics prefers accommodation and reconciliation, with a keen understanding to minimise enemies you make in politics who may one day turn into friends. That is why he is willing to put up with Muhyiddin’s offers, including not offering him the deputy prime ministership, for little in return for the elderly wise of politics. But now, Zahid is clearly pushed to a corner by his grassroots grouses, something he heard but chose to ignore.

I find it hard to believe that Zahid’s accommodation is simply timidity or incompetence. In fact, Zahid’s survival in politics over the decade indicates something more tactical. The refusal to push Bersatu too hard is because time is on Umno’s side.

There is little difference between calling an election in the near term or only two years down the line. Even though this may appear to give Bersatu time to catch up, Umno would not sit idly and let Bersatu run ahead of them. A significantly smaller party, Umno political capital is unsurpassed even by opposition heavyweights in Pakatan Harapan.

On the flip side, attacking too early may prove counterproductive as this may give Bersatu more reasons to escalate preparations, adopting cunning tactics borne from the treacherous streak of its defectors and betrayers. Tapping onto the desperation of Bersatu might invite more uncertainties that Umno would be forced to deal with, further dispersing the needed resources at the centre.

Lastly, the factionalism and division among its leaders prove that any onward attack against Bersatu would be ineffective and potentially self-defeating. It would expose further cleavages within the Umno leadership that could not be masked when push comes to shove.

In the event of a war, Umno members would unify their anger and direct it against the flower (Bersatu) they commonly despise. Any petty differences would be set aside for brotherhood in arms.

Attacking too soon now would invite little returns - in fact, that might be Bersatu’s greatest hope for success.

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JAMES CHAI is a legal consultant and researcher working for Invoke, among others. He also blogs at jameschai.com.my. You may reach him at jameschai.mpuk@gmail.com. - Mkini

The views expressed here are those of the author/contributor and do not necessarily represent the views of MMKtT.