GE-13: July prospect dimmed by Bersih, bets now on for October

It is a strange thing indeed but graffiti art on the walls do tell a lot about the signs of the times.

About 10 days to a week before the 12th General Election on 8th March 2008, someone had sprayed graffiti on the walls of buildings located near Central Market and Masjid Jamek LRT in Kuala Lumpur. Two significant words on these walls were 'Mahathirism' and 'ABU'.

Everyone understands what Mahathirism is all about as Mahathir had governed our country for 22 years but ABU is just a Malay name and left many wondering who this Malay guy was and what was his role in the polls.

It was only later that it dawned on many that ABU is the acronym for 'Anyone But UMNO' and its Bahasa Malaysia version is 'Asalkan Bukan UMNO' which translated into English means 'As Long As It's Not UMNO'.

Why should we? We are only just starting to warm our seat

Wow! Who invented that? Equally poignant in both Bahasa Malaysa and English Language - point put succintly across. However, immediately after the 2008 election results were out, the ABU word was cleaned off the walls leaving only Mahathirism until this day.

Now, no one knows when the 13th General Election will be held although there's a joke making its rounds that even Prime Minister Najib Razak does not know as he needs to consult the First Lady Of Malaysia, Rosmah Mansor, first. And foremost.

Some of thiose who attended the engagement party of 'first daughter' Nooryana Najib in Seri Perdana recently tell of Rosmah's response when asked by eager guests whether the GE would be in July, "Why should we? We are only just starting to warm our seat."

That must surely send a tremor of fear down the spine of many citizens. But fortunately, the latest sign from Najib just last night when asked by a group of young professionals was, "We are still holding the mandate now, it can be held soon. But it must be held before March 2013 when the mandate for us expires."

So on and on, the guessing continues even as investors' grousing about the uncertainty grows louder. Becauses the chances are narrow between BN and Pakatan, many of the rich and powerful prefer to wait for the dust to settle before they bring in the 'real' money.

July to January forecast

Still, as Najib has said speculating about the polls date is the greatest national past-time, so let us take a month-by-month look to see when GE-13 will most likely be held:

First of all, the immediate month ahead, which is July. This is actually the best month for Najib to hold the polls as he needs to get it over and done with quickly before anymore tricky issues such another silly RM1.8 million Facebook factual foul-up crops up. And more importantly before the people wake-up to the fact that all his alphabet-soup megabucks projects have so far been hot air or only benefitting the BN-cronies.

His birthday on 23rd July also happens to be a weekend. It may sound trite but he can use his birthday to campaign by requesting the people to give him a birthday gift he will never forget! But he needs to be careful too. After all which is more unfrogettable - a BN win or a Pakatan victory.

August being the Muslim fasting month of Ramadhan is a sure indicator that the polls will not be held this month.

September may be a possibility as the government would have already doled out lots of goodies to the Malays during Ramadhan, plus the highlights of a so-called harmonious Merdeka campaign splashed across the papers for all to see, but its effect may be limited only to the gullible. Even so, BN can achieve victory due to the feel-good factor and they will surely capitalise on the short memory of Malaysian voters.

The whole month of October is also a possibility as the polls can be called after the 'goodies' are announced in the Budget Presentation in the early part of the month. Note the word 'announced'. Whether the deals materialise or not is a different matter. Nevertheless, October after the Budget is now the month most favoured by GE punters.

From 9th November to 9th December, polls will definitely not be held. The Prime Minister tends to travel overseas extensively in November. This happened in year 2009 and year 2010 and it will be the same this year. This is his good and so-called lucky month for travel. So, Malaysian taxpayers had better brace for another huge bill from the lavish first couple after the government revealed on Monday their travelling expenses for the first 6 months of this year alone exceeded RM5 million!

Watch out the Dragon Rises From The Sea

There is also possibility that the general election will be held after 9th December and in January 2012. If next year, it will definitely be before the Chinese Lunar New Year, which will be the year of the Water Dragon.

2012 per the Chinese Almanac is also known as the Dragon Rises From The Sea, a phenomenon that herald disaster with a capital D. Remember the movie '2012'?

Those who had punted on a July GE need not be disappointed. For the BN, its gives them more time to enjoy their powers. For the Pakatan, it gives them more time to reinforce the awareness and need for free and fair elections.

Who knows, if Bersih 2.0 does well, and the people like it and the demand for the sense of social justice it brings increases, then Bersih 3.0 may even be rolled out.

- Malaysia Chronicle