Behind the ‘Kajang move’, from the grapevines – Nawawi Mohamad

For better or worse Dr Mahathir Mohamad has shown how a leader of a nation should be. Despite Malaysia being a small developing country and often misplaced on the world map, Mahathir did not ‘kowtow’ to the more powerful nations especially the US, Britain and the West. He looked East.

As the most powerful man in Malaysia he wielded his power to take things as much under his control and achieved what he really wanted, to the extent of making sure that even the courts interpret the laws as what Mahathir wants them to be interpreted.

Those who were against him, whether they were from his cabinet members, chief ministers, BN leaders or government servants were removed from his team of diehard supporters. But those that he could twist their minds would be given second chances. Those he held by the balls remain subservient to him.

Now as long as he is still alive, he wants to make sure that Malaysia be moulded into what he had envisaged, and maintain his legacy, if not create a dynasty.

But as human, he has limitations, thus he had to pass the baton to another trustee to continue his mission to achieve his vision. Mahathir knows that none of his children would be able to undertake the responsibility but he had hoped that Anwar Ibrahim could do the job because he saw the potential in him (Anwar) and Mahathir hoped to groom Azmin Ali as the next in line.

His plan was disrupted by the various circumstances both domestically and internationally. As a man who can evaluate people’s performance and potentials, Mahathir knew that both Abdullah Badawi and Najib Razak are hopeless; both have not shown any leadership traits but just waiting patiently to receive the baton. At least Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah proved something when he challenged Mahathir while Abdullah obediently waited 22 years without proving anything. Najib on the other hand got the job just because Mahathir removed Abdullah from power.

Mahathir’s mistake was to believe that being ‘hopeless’ both Abdullah and Najib could easily be manipulated to follow his orders. They are in fact more hopeless in taking orders! We all know the history and both Abdullah and Najib have miserably failed him.

While Abdullah was a total failure despite the scheming by the ambitious but naïve son-in-law, it was easy for Mahathir to push Abdullah aside. Najib is a little bit problematic because he is a bit clever and able to cling to power until today despite being worse than Abdullah. Najib also has the ever ambitious Rosmah.

Mahathir is absolutely convinced that the longer Najib stays in power, the worse it will be for Malaysia; at least in Mahathir’s vision of Malaysia anyway.

The efforts to remove Najib have started before the previous GE13 but Mahathir did not want to rock the boat which may end with Umno-BN losing in the election then.

The grapevines have been abuzz that Mahathir has given Najib the ultimatum to either step down or make things better based on Mahathir’s wishes. Some people say March 2014 is the deadline.

But after tasting power, Najib is addicted to it and Rosmah would be nagging day and night if Najib simply bows to Mahathir. Rosmah wants Najib to defend his position if not go down with a fight.

PKR is now in turmoil in Selangor. Anwar has not given due rewards to Azmin Ali despite his unwavering support in good and bad times. Initially when the prospect of Pakatan Rakyat to win GE13 was considerably high, Azmin was hopeful for a very senior post if Anwar became the Prime Minister, thus Azmin was not envious of the Selangor Menteri Besar post. When Umno-BN managed to win GE13, Azmin had no choice but to just let things be.

But for how long Azmin has to wait? The chances of Pakatan Rakyat and Anwar to form the next federal government is still slim because the opposition cannot depend on the ballot boxes; Umno-BN has perfected the art of cheating in the polls, well, almost.

Mahathir has never lost his sight on Azmin because he is the one who brought Azmin into politics, into Umno and his close association and unwavering support to Anwar is on Mahathir’s advice. Anwar of course knows this very well and he has reservations in trusting Azmin fully.

When there is a persistent complaint from Azmin against almost everything related to Khalid and Selangor, Mahathir realises that this is the golden opportunity to lure back Azmin into his fold. In fact there have been talks circulating in the political community that Mahathir has discussed with Azmin to bring along as many PKR/PR members of parliament in helping to oust Najib.

Najib is fully aware of this possibility that some Umno MPs will abandon him for Mahathir’s team. Therefore Najib has sought Anwar’s help in giving full support to ensure Najib stays in power when Mahathir makes his final move. Therefore Najib and Anwar will scratch each other’s back to say in ensuring Najib maintain the status quo.

But why must Anwar prepare to take over control of Selangor?

Although Khalid has been able to make PAS, DAP and most of the Selangorians happy, he is not a politician; he is a frugal corporate manager. When Mahathir, Najib, Anwar and Azmin make their political maneuvers, Khalid will not be able to make the corresponding and complimentary political moves to ensure PR and Anwar stay intact or even stronger.

Khalid has been criticised openly by Azmin and several other detractors but without any clever and conclusive reactions from Khalid. Khalid has also been reprimanded openly by Anwar yet Khalid either acted dumb or naively, not like a suave politician. Anwar has no choice but to replace Khalid because it is all about politics.

After knowing the move made by Mahathir, the takeover has to be hastened, thus many observers were caught off guard with the resignation of Lee Chin Cheh. Even many PR leaders are also bewildered by the rapid chain reactions, thus we hear many angry voices from them and their supporters. However in Umno, the infightings have never subsided, thus nobody in Umno is surprised over the recent events.

Anwar has to accept Najib’s offer of some sort of reconciliation; his Sodomy II case may not end up in his favour. Najib may not take actions on other PR politicians and let PR control Selangor. Anwar on the other hand also hopes that with Najib in power, there is a better than slim chance for the opposition to win the GE14.

Najib and Mahathir will have their own duel which may result in either one winning. Mahathir may be able to take control of Umno and Najib may form another Malay party with the help of Anwar. If Najib managed to still control Umno, albeit a weaker one if many MPs sway to Mahathir, he may form a unity government to keep Mahathir’s team at bay, at least until the GE14.

As for PAS and DAP they will not lose anything whatever the outcome maybe because they are not the ones wielding the power even now in Selangor. In fact at the national level they may be better if a ‘unity government’ is formed; some may get better jobs.

There is no clear picture yet on the possible outcome but Mahathir, Najib and Anwar are in the final phase of political lives; their last chance to make or break. It is interesting to watch things unfold as we go along and wait for the outcome of the Kajang by-election.

* Nawawi Mohamad reads The Malaysian Insider.