PAS to cast the die this week

PAS must decide whether it wants to stay with a national coalition that has a chance at grabbing federal power or recede back to its rural stronghold of Kelantan at its muktamar this week. – The Malaysian Insider file pic, June 1, 2015.

Ahmad Hairy, now in his 60s, has been an active PAS member for close to three decades and he was never happier than in 2008, when the Islamist party formed an alliance, Pakatan Rakyat (PR), with PKR and DAP.

But as PAS begins its annual general meetings of its wings tomorrow, and holds elections for office-bearers on June 4, Ahmad and his fellow PAS activists in Shah Alam are steeling themselves for utter dejection.

This is since the elections will determine whether the Islamist party stays with a national coalition that has a chance at grabbing federal power or recede back to its rural stronghold of Kelantan in the northeast corner of Peninsular Malaysia.

“We've come very far in the past few years. It’s been proven that when we ally ourselves with others, we reap a lot of benefits,” said Ahmad, who requested a pseudonym as he did not want to slight party seniors.

“When we go it alone, we lose. We really like being with Pakatan." 

For or against PR

Labelling and name-calling have tarred the two factions competing for control of the party in the run up to the elections and shows how high the stakes are and their possible consequences.

The labels centre on dividing camps in the party into either “pro-PR”or “suspicious of PR”, said another active member, Abdul Rahman Othman of Subang Jaya.

The campaigning this time has been especially vicious, said PAS central committee member Dr Dzulkefly Ahmad, who was assaulted in an incident believed to be related to the factional feud.

Leaders like him in the central committee have been accused by their rivals of being more loyal to PR than to the party, the president and to the Shura Council, a body of elder scholars known as ulama or clerics, who guide the party’s direction.

For a party like PAS, the only member of the opposition pact to have religion as its party ideology, these are heretical charges. 

Members are frequently reminded that unlike conventional political parties, PAS is a first and foremost a movement that uses electoral politics to promote and implement its Islamist agenda.

According to this logic, PAS is only in PR to get power to implement its agenda.

But this cohesiveness began to fall apart last year, over the choice of candidate for the Selangor menteri besar's post, with the Shura Council and PAS president Datuk Seri Abdul Hadi Awang both against the choice of PKR president Datuk Seri Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail who had the support of PKR, DAP and PAS's own central committee members.

That imbroglio brought out into the open the differences between Hadi and other conservative ulama leaders, with those in the party who felt that PAS, as a member of a coalition, should honour agreements made collectively.

Similarly, the controversy over Kelantan's hudud bill in March this year, heightened infighting within PR, especially between PAS and DAP, and has seen some PAS leaders accused of ignoring the party's stance in order to please PKR and DAP.

“The campaign is not against certain individuals any more but against all like-minded people,” said Dzulkefly, who heads the PAS research department.

In previous party elections, he said, it was enough if candidates were hardworking and active in party programmes. This time, it is also about where each candidate stands when it comes to PR-PAS relations.

Political party or missionary movement?

The counter sentiment to PAS staying on as part of PR is that the Islamist party can survive on its own.

For his part, Hadi has said the party would stay with PR, for now.

The conservative leader is defending his presidency from Perak Pas commissioner Ahmad Awang, a party veteran and more crucially, the architect of the Perak PR government in 2008 and a staunch supporter of PAS remaining with the opposition alliance.

If the faction that is less keen on continued collaboration with PR gains control of the party, there will likely be three more years of strained ties in the opposition pact, which would affect its performance in the next or 14th general election (GE14), due by early 2018.

It could also see PAS leave PR, also with severe ramifications for the opposition.

Even PAS activists like Ahmad Hairi predict that his party would lose all the territories it gained on the peninsula west coast, such as in Perak, Selangor and Johor.

Merdeka Center executive director Ibrahim Suffian said all these seats were won when PAS discarded its messages against moral policing over alcohol consumption and other activities deemed as vices, to subscribe to a more pluralist platform that was similar to the other PR parties.

“So PAS has to decide whether it wants to be a national political party or a missionary movement, which are two different things,” said Ibrahim.

But equally important is the possibility that if it leaves PR, PAS would face its former partners in GE14, which has historically been disastrous for PR.

This was seen in three-cornered fights among PAS, PKR and Barisan Nasional in two seats – in Kota Damansara, Selangor and Sungai Aceh, Penang, in GE13 in 2013.

In those contests, the total vote share of the PAS and PKR candidates was more than that of BN.

Such contests would also be catastrophic for PAS as its incumbent legislators would have to face off against challengers from PKR and BN.

“It’s something that cuts both ways. A PAS leader who has a small majority can be knocked off if there is third candidate who splits the opposition vote,” said Ibrahim.

Which shows how valuable the PR is to each of its three partners, said another analyst Wan Saiful Wan Jan.

“Every party benefits equally from the cooperation, just as every party will suffer equally if the coalition breaks up,” said Wan Saiful of the Institute of Democracy and Economic Affairs.

The PAS elections on Thursday will be held during the party's 61st muktamar or annual general assembly, preceded by the meetings of its Ulama wing, and Youth and Women's wings which begin tomorrow.

- TMI