KUALA LUMPUR - As Umno hurtles into an inevitable blow-up, forces aligned to Deputy Prime Minister Zahid Hamidi appear to be gaining ascendancy - not only over Muhyiddin Yassin, the incumbent party No.2 and previous DPM - but also over embattled party president, Prime Minister Najib Razak.
"Najib has no choice. He is under pressure from the Zahid camp but to show he 'trusts' Zahid and will promote him as the next in line," a political source told Malaysia Chronicle.
"But will Zahid wait and will Najib keep his promise."
Indeed, the ruckus over a 'plot' to sack Muhyiddin from Umno is now being fuelled by the Zahid camp, much more than by Najib's supporters.
Many believe Najib is now 'extremely nervous' and is trying to negotiate a way out with Muhyiddin so as to keep the ambitious Zahid at bay.
"Najib's men may be screaming at the top of their lungs to get Muhyiddin removed but that could be for show. What is the worse Muhyiddin can do at the Umno assembly in December? Muhyiddin can only harp at 1MDB, while if Najib makes the unwise move of dumping him, Najib may find himself in Zahid's power," said the source.
"And there is already talk Zahid is making overtures to Mukhriz Mahathir."
The source was referring the Kedah chief minister, who is the youngest son of former premier Mahathir Mohamad. Both father and son, along with Muhyiddin, Sabah leader Shafie Apdal and Kelantan prince Tengku Razaleigh are believed to be on a blacklist of 7 'rebels' due to face face disciplinary action, suspension and the sack for criticizing Najib.
Of late, Zahid has hinted that Mahathir may even be summoned by the police for his anti-Najib comments.
But Mahathir still wields important influence in Umno despite retiring in 2003, and Zahid would need his backing and blessings to be able to ensconce hmself comfortably in Najib's seat.
Zahid putting pressure on Muhyiddin to quit, Ku Li also on watch
Many Umno watchers believe Zahid's focus will be on Muhyddin and Ku Li - two men who have refused to buckle to pressure and harbor ambitions to lead the nation.
"It's an open secret in Umno that Zahid has been trying to persuade Muhyiddin to quit before the general assembly, ironically for the sake of party 'unity'. So far Muhyiddin has refused. So out comes the stick - resign or be sacked. It is something Muhyiddin is now considering seriously," said the source.
"As for Ku Li, Zahid has already previously warned of an Umno leader trying to topple the government by going through the Malay rulers. Once, Zahid is finished with Muhyiddin, he may look again to Ku Li. Any obstacle to the PM's chair won't be spared."
Insiders had said the party supreme council was preparing charge papers against Muhyiddin, to be submitted to the disciplinary board along with evidence of his 'offences'. Grassroots have been told the move was necessary to prevent Muhyiddin from continuing to attack the Umno leadership during the officiating ceremony at the assembly, which will involve all wings of the party.
Umno secretary-general Ku Nan, who refused to name the 7 'rebels' but disparaged them as 'termites', has confirmed investigation papers have been completed and will be submitted to the party's disciplinary board.
"If the disciplinary board decides to issue only a warning letter, Zahid's hope go up in smoke. Najib can breathe again but for sure Zahid will try again," the source said.
"Najib is now more precarious than before. At least, Mahathir and Muhyiddin openly declared their intentions to topple him. For Zahid, he publicly stands on Najib's side but it is evident in the party that his men are openly calling for Najib to declare him the official successor."
Among the prominent pro-Zahid leaders is Nazri Aziz, a senior Umno minister who had previously aligned himself to the Najib camp. Nazri recently raised eyebrows when he declared he would support Zahid to be Prime Minister if Najib resigned.
Mahathir's deafening silence: Secret deals being struck?
All eyes are also Mahathir, who has kept a deafening silence on the issue.
A blog posting by one of Mahathir's staunchest allies, former minister Zainuddin Maidin, has sparked speculation that the ex-PM might be dropping his support for Muhyiddin and switching to Zahid.
"It is not impossible that a top secret Zahid-Mahathir alliance is in the works. Their people are always talking to each other. At the moment, what is apparent to us is Mahathir is working with Ku Li and still supporting Muhyiddin. But if Muhyiddin quits or is sacked?
"On the other side of the fence is Zahid working with Najib to keep their factions in power. The words to describe the Umno equation now are fluid and volatile. Anything can be negotiated behind closed doors. The only certainty is Najib will go - either by Mahathir, Muhyiddin, Ku Li or Zahid's hand."
Pushing Najib off the cliff
At the core of Najib's problems is the massive 1MDB debacle which has plunged the Malaysian currency to unprecedented 17-year lows, and severely dented the image of the country.
Najib is under investigation the authorities in the U.S. U.K., Switzerland and Singapore. A shock RM2.6 bil was discovered in his personal bank accounts, with a money trail leading back to a 1MDB unit.
Despite the enormous pressure, Najib has refused to step down, perhaps for fear of immediate arrest and jail. He has sacked Muhyiddin and several top leaders, civil servants including the Attorney General Gani Patail in a bid to foil corruption investigations against himself.
Many have accused the 62-year-old PM of using his enormous and some say unscrupulously-obtained wealth to buy the support of key Umno division chiefs. Such an image of 'political invincibility' has helped him to maintain his dignity in his party.
However, a recent shock popularity poll may be Najib's final undoing.
A recently released survey conducted by independent pollster Merdeka Centre showed that only 31% of Malay voters are satisfied with the government. This is the first time approval among Malays for the government has fallen below 50%.
Faced with such bleak prognosis, Umno leaders must know they cannot win the next general election unless Najib is taken out of the equation, and a new leader installed to restore Malay confidence in their party.
"The poll gave the final impetus and was a godsend for Zahid to use to get the warlords on his side. Once they have neutralized Muhyiddin, who is a key obstacle by virtue of his deputy president's post and therefore in line to be PM if Najib falls, Zahid will try to strike a deal with Mahathir and push Najib off the cliff. Watch it happen," said the source. - Malaysia Chronicle
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