OVERPAID & PAMPERED, NAJIB'S BLOGGERS DRINK LATTE, EAT STEAK & LOBSTER WHILE MALAYSIA BURNS

A short paragraph on politics and then on to some other stuff.The pro-Najib bloggers are busy earning their “upah” spinning Mr Arul Kanda’s reluctance to debate Rafizi. They are coming out with so many excuses.Well, I look at it like this.

Let’s say somebody pays a labourer RM 1,000 today to dig a hole. Tomorrow they pay the same labourer RM 1,000 to cover the hole. And they keep doing this day and day out. But this arrangement is only known between the paymaster and this labourer – nobody else knows about it and both are sworn to secrecy.

Won’t it be stupid for a bystander to keep arguing with this labourer about how futile this arrangement is. If you ask him, “why are you digging a hole” – he will offer all sorts of excuses. If you ask him “why are you covering the hole”, he will once again offer all sorts of excuses.

So in a way that is the point behind this entire exercise. You challenge to a debate – now you say cannot debate. Today you offer one excuse why there must be a debate, tomorrow you offer a new excuse why they cannot be a debate.

The best excuse is the one by Keruak - the debate was to settle a personal issue between Tony Pua and Arul Kanda. And since the issue is no longer a personal issue between two people, then RTM can no longer provide a live telecast for the debate

Er, since when is a personal issue between two people became so important that it warrants a live telecast on RTM?

Keruak says 1MDB was a personal issue after all!

With that, let us look at some other global economic developments that have happened.

The first has to do with the markets view that the US Dollar will continue to strengthen. Yesterday, the US economy delivered a solid jobs report that more or less makes it a certainty that the Federal Reserve will raise rates in December.Second issue to talk about is the future price of oil.

Both WTI and Brent traded sharply lower yesterday because of this news. US production of crude oil has gone down slightly but the production of Natural Gas Liquids have ramped up – this means there will be a persistent supply coming out of the US. The supply demand ratio is now around the lowest levels in the last 10 years – these are all bearish indicators.

According to the Oil Market Intelligence, Non-OPEC countries, including Malaysia and the US, produce about 56.9 million barrels per day as compared to OPEC countries which produce 39.1 million barrels per day. This means that the pricing power of OPEC is gone.

Now Goldman Sachs said in September that oil could go down to as low as $20 per barrel over here in the most bearish scenario. Their base scenario is that prices are slightly lower than it is today.

Both the almost certain increase in the Federal Funds rate and the bearish oil price sentiment will put a lot of short term pressure on the Ringgit. Dollar – Ringgit closed at RM 4.3112 , it would probably trade much lower next week.

Now, remember what I said about the preconditions necessary for Najib’s ouster?I said if Dollar – Ringgit touches RM 4.600, this game is back in play.

Malaysian consumer confidence fell off a cliff in August – September 2015 when the Ringgit collapsed. At the same time, a separate poll by the Merdeka Centre put the Malay support for Najib’s Government at only 31%.This is the key media issue which the pro Najib folk have failed to handle.

It will always be the economy. The simple kampong folk will not buy all the stories about WTI, Federal Funds rate and that sort. They will see the Ringgit collapse and blame it on Najib and 1MDB. Even though they may be partial to Tun's rants on 1MDB when times were "ok", they will get really angry when times are stressful and the Ringgit continues to collapse.This feedback will most likely erupt in this year's PAU.

This is the perception game that Najib’s million ringgit spin team has not handled. In fact, they are incapable of handling it because the Ringgit is so volatile because of poor investor sentiment, mainly caused by 1MDB.

Pro Najib bloggers can have a laksa but they must pay themselves

Then imagine if in December, RM – Dollar reaches RM 4.60. Then UMNO people will look back and ask why did not Arul Kanda debate Rafizi and resolve all the questions.

Or they will say something like this - “Selesaikan isu 1MDB sebelum pulihkan Ringgit”That is why you can spin for all you want to spin.It is akin to digging a hole and closing the hole.

But we don't begrudge them, maybe its time for them to have a Laksa - but pay yourself ok!

Note: Of course, pro Najib bloggers wont eat such humble mans food. They drink latte, eat steak and lobster. Najib go down or stay up also no problem. After all, Tun Dr Mahathir and TSMY took care of them last time, now they jump to another master, tomorrow they will jump to another fella. Biasalah tu..-SpinKing.Blogspot