All eyes on Dr M if he'll lead anti-Najib campaign

When Dr Mahathir Mohamad quit Umno yesterday, all eyes focused on whether he would lead a campaign against Prime Minister Najib Tun Abdul Razak in cooperation with the opposition and possibly even civil society.

If everything goes on smoothly for Mahathir and the opposition, political commentator Josh Hong expects for the next general election two years down the road, a coalition or alliance that matches the ruling BN.

Several conditions are needed to strengthen the anti-Najib campaign so it can weaken the BN led by Najib, he said.

These conditions include both Mahathir and opposition ironing out their terms for co-operation plus other heavyweight leaders in Umno and BN supporting their efforts.

"From what I see, every time Mahathir runs into dead alley, he will come out with something dramatic," said Hong (photo) referring to Mahathir's decision to quit the party in 2008 and yesterday.

"Do not overestimate Mahathir's influence. He wasn't left with much choice and he doesn't has much advantage now (as compared in 2008 when he first exited Umno)," he said.

The country's longest serving premier will need to rely on the opposition, particularly for his long-time rival and PKR de facto leader Anwar Ibrahim's green light to form an anti-Najib coalition, he added.

Despite a warm reaction from DAP supremo Lim Kit Siang and PKR deputy president Azmin Ali, the nine-month old Pakatan Harapan and its allies have yet to come out with a stand on working with Mahathir.

Mahathir only wants Najib to step down while the opposition has repeatedly demanded for a total change of the system.

If Mahathir stands firm in only wanting to change Najib, then the jailed PKR de facto leader may not work with him, noted Hong who is also a Malaysiakini columnist.

"Even if they settle their differences and work together, they still need the support of heavyweight leaders in BN and Umno like suspended deputy president Muhyiddin Yassin, vice-president Shafie Apdal and veteran Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah," he added.

Najib's trump card

Only then can the anti-Najib coalition affect BN badly enough before the next general election though Najib will be unshakable for the time being.

"And why did I mention the Umno veterans? Razaleigh is pretty much a symbol to the the hardcore and middle-class Malays who distrust both Najib and PAS but think that the veterans like Razaleigh and Mahathir are moderate nationalists," Hong explained.

"And from what I see, PAS is Najib's trump card. There is a chance PAS may work with Umno. PAS has its own hardcore supporters," he said.

PAS will think twice in supporting Umno if the anti-Najib coalition builds up its momentum, said Hong adding 'the low morale' opposition coalition needs Mahathir more than Umno does.

"It is pretty ironic that the opposition needs a leader to lead them. In the past, they needed Anwar, now they need Mahathir," said Hong.

The last time Mahathir exited Umno saw then Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi step down a short while later.

"Several reasons led to Pak Lah to exit politics,” recalled Hong. “First, Umno wanted to get rid of him following the 2008 general election setback which saw BN being denied a two-thirds majority.

"Also, Abdullah had a good successor - Najib. Now, you don't have one to replace Najib. Deputy prime minister and party vice-president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi is with Najib.

“Mahathir dislikes leaders like Hishamuddin Hussein and Khairy Jamaluddin. They do not trust Mahathir either," he said.

"Najib is pretty much a fighter himself and he just uses the machinery (to retain power). He had the former attorney-general Abdul Gani Patail replaced irregardless of criticism," he added.

Umno does not see Najib as a betrayer as Umno had won more seats in 2013 general election compared to Abdullah's era, he said.

When asked about the March 27 'oust Najib' gathering called by former law minister Zaid Ibrahim, Hong noted its success would depending on Mahathir and the opposition parties.

He said he personally does not see Zaid as leading the 'closed door' event.

He also pointed out the organisers risk angering Catholics as they will be celebrating Easter Day on March 27. "So, it is better for them to change the gathering date," he said.

Another observer, meanwhile, said that Najib and his party would not suffer any far-reaching consequences for now.

Mahathir won't have an effect

"In the short term, any negative impact on Umno and Najib is limited. They will solve the problem they are facing," said Ibrahim Suffian (photo), executive director of independent pollster Merdeka Center.

In the medium term, he said Mahathir could galvanise public opinion further against Najib and the government.

It will also be difficulty for the administration to win back the support lost due to the slowing economy and the various controversies that it is embroiled in, he added.

"If Mahathir mobilises the dissenting elements in Malaysian politics, this move would signal that he is taking his case to the electorate rather than Umno members.

"If he is successful, he could split the Malay-Muslim vote which forms the backbone of support for the ruling party in Malaysia," noted Ibrahim.

Whether Mahathir will lead the opposition in his anti-Najib campaign up to the next polls will depends on how things develop from here on, he added.

Meanwhile, National Defence University’s Prof Aruna Gopinath said Mahathir leaving Umno meant that he had more room to oust Najib.

However, she said whatever Mahathir does will not gain traction as Malaysians have lost faith in the former premier.

"Once you are out of politics, you should not interfere. He has been interfering too much in the sense that he tried to provoke (the people to topple Najib)," she said.

"He should retire like Abdullah Ahmad Badawi. Mahathir thinks that he has a large following but I don't think the people will give him due respect," she added.

When asked about Mahathir voicing his concern over Najib's RM2.6 billion donation affair and the 1MDB fiasco, she said Mahathir was only harping on these issues without evidence.

"Without evidence, you cannot simply talk about it. It is wrong to speculate. Unless you have evidence, then it will be different," she said.

"Only Najib knows the truth," she added. -Mkini