Fall of Mukhriz - does Mahathir know 'something'?

To most observers, Mukhriz Mahathir is nothing more than a pawn sacrificed in the battle between goliaths.

The episode is also viewed as Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak flexing his muscles after having consolidated his position in Umno amid a slew of allegations and trust deficit.

Despite the attempts to oust his son, Dr Mahathir Mohamad remained silent and did not intervene, at least as far as the media is concerned.

If he did attempt to save his son, this was done behind closed doors.

However, a political analyst offered an alternative scenario which could explain the former premier's silence on this issue.

Speaking to Malaysiakini, Universiti Islam Antarabangsa (UIA) assistant prof Maszlee Malik (photo) put forth the hypothesis of Mahathir knowing "something".

This "something", according to him, is the possibility that Najib's days are numbered.

"If true, then it is not worth for Mahathir to waste his time fighting to maintain the MB seat when he knows his son has a chance of securing a better post in the future.

"Being seen as a victim is also a good advantage for Mukhriz with regard to his future survival," he told Malaysiakini.

Furthermore, it has always been speculated that Mahathir harbours the ambition of seeing his son become prime minister.

Meanwhile, Maszlee pointed out that Mukhriz commands stronger support from the grassroots, especially with his comments on GST, 1MDB and the RM 2.6 billion donation issue.

With Najib appearing to consolidate his position, he said it would be pointless for Mukhriz to fight a losing battle at this juncture.

"After all, Mukhriz was never seen as a fighter in Umno since his days in Umno Youth, so we cannot expect much of him.

"He may be thinking of the long-term struggle in a post-Najib era should he remain in Umno and not be stripped off his membership.

"I believe if he keeps a low-profile and makes less noise like Muhyiddin Yasin and Shafie Apdal, he will be able to remain in Umno, and prepare himself for a greater struggle, since he did not politically lose the battle, despite losing the MB post," he added.

End of Mahathir's influence?

Another political analyst Tang Ah Chai (photo), however, believes the Kedah crisis indicates that the curtain has come down on Mahathir’s influence.

"This has revealed a message: Mahathir's days are gone, and the final curtain is falling on the war between Mahathir and Najib ," he told Malaysiakini.

However, he too believes the door might still be open for Mukhriz to make a comeback since he chose to relinquish his post instead of defying the wishes of the palace.

"This is not a vote (of no confidence) in the state assembly but rather, the sultan accepting the candidates submitted by Umno to replace Mukhriz.

“For Mukhriz, this means the sultan abandoned him.

"At least (Mukhriz) has not severed ties (with the Kedah royalty), maintaining the harmony at the surface and retaining the possibility for future cooperation,” he added.

Tang, who is also the Kuala Lumpur and Selangor Chinese Assembly Hall (KLSCAH) chief executive officer, said this is because Mukhriz understands that the odds are stacked against him.

Apart from the political scenario, there is also a royal dimension to the crisis.

The events which transpired in Kedah were another example of the palace entering the political realm.

The Federal Court ruling on the 2009 Perak constitutional crisis set a precedent where the state assembly can be bypassed, allowing the state's monarch to determine whether a menteri besar has majority support.

During the Selangor crisis, the sultan breached convention by rejecting PKR president Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail as menteri besar despite commanding majority support.

In Johor, the rulers have interfered in policy-making decisions.

Monarchical power was reduced by Mahathir during his 22-year reign as prime minister, but since the 2008 political tsunami, the palace has become more involved in political matters.

Some welcome this, but others are concerned about the repercussions. -Mkini