Islamic State eyes South-East Asia base?

US security consultant sees new attempt at caliphate in region, but Singapore analyst says it is unlikely.

PETALING JAYA: The Islamic State terrorist network may look to South-East Asia after the failure of its operations in Iraq and Syria, according to a US-based security consultant, but a Singaporean analyst believes this is unlikely.

The US consultant, Patrick Skinner, said in a report that although ISIS had yet to establish a South-East Asian “wilayah” or state, “it is likely that it will do so this year”, according to Singapore’s Straits Times in a report from Jakarta.

However, Skinner’s view was challenged by a Singaporean analyst, who discounted a deliberate shift of attention to South-East Asia by Islamic State central.

This shift “seems unlikely for now as ISIS is preoccupied with its immediate priority of holding ground in Iraq and Syria, and expanding its fight to Libya and Europe,” according to Dr Joseph Liow, dean of the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies, who also said the threat of Islamic State terrorism remained “at a low level”.

Skinner and Dr Liow had testified before a US House of Representatives committee on Wednesday and issued separate reports quoted by the Straits Times.

The newspaper said that Skinner believed that ISIS was likely to expand into South-East Asia this year because of its weakening grip on Syria and Iraq, and difficulty in remaining and expanding in Libya.

“It is very possible that places like southern Philippines will be its next priority,” said Skinner’s report, according to the newspaper.

The Islamic State group would look towards the Jemaah Islamiah and Jemaah Anshar Khilafah networks, as well as the Abu Sayyaf, which operate in Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore and the southern Philippines.

“These are existing sanctuaries that the Islamic State would love to plug in,” said Skinner who claimed that “concern is building among… the Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Singapore that the Islamic State has the region in its cross hairs.”

Analysts from the International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS) confirmed that ISIS has started a campaign to establish an Islamic caliphate across Asia.

Two analysts with the Rajaratnam school, Jasminder Singh and Muhammad Haziq Jani, said in a report that militant groups in South-East Asia were affiliated with the doctrines of ISIS founder Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, “turning them into a unified force”.

However, Dr Liow said a shift to South-East Asia was “unlikely for now as ISIS is preoccupied with its immediate priority of holding ground in Iraq and Syria, and expanding its fight to Libya and Europe.”

Dr Liow said South-East Asian governments were better prepared to deal with terrorism compared with 15 years ago but capacity could be improved with greater cooperation and some help from the United States.