The ABC of Sarawak state election

Following the announcement of that the state assembly will be dissolved on April 11, the battle for the 11th Sarawak election has finally begun with BN and opposition parties busy planning their strategies to capture the 82 seats on offer.

All eyes will be on Chief Minister Adenan Satem on whether he will win a bigger majority in the Land of the Hornbills compared to his predecessor and governor Abdul Taib Mahmud who was facing allegations of corruption at the last polls.

1. Why Sarawak has a unique election date and not concurrent with the general election?

After joining Malaysia in 1963, Sarawak had simultaneous elections with the rest of the nation in 1969 and 1974. However, it opted to go it alone following the 1978 general election and 1979 state election.

Political pundits believed then chief minister Abdul Rahman Ya'kub’s inability to resolve internal fighting within the ruling PBB contributed to the split dates.

Former premier Dr Mahathir Mohamad, said Sarawak political scientist James Chin, had tried to persuade Taib, who replaced Abdul Rahman, to have concurrent polls.

“But Taib refused to do so as DAP had won parliamentary seats in the 1982 general election,” he said, referring to DAP taking Bandar Kuching and Bandar Sibu after contesting Sarawak’s parliamentary seats for the first time.

“To avoid national issues affecting state polls and Taib's wish to control state issues, hence the existence of split polls," he said.

2. What are Sarawak's demographics?

There are 1,109,134 voters in the state electoral roll as at Dec 31, 2015.

Compared to Peninsular Malaysia, the state has even greater ethnic diversity. Based on 2010 census, Dayak (Iban, Bidayuh and Orang Ulu) constitutes the largest group with 37%, followed by Malay (23%), Chinese (23%) and Melanau (5%).

According to The Star, 30 seats are classified as Malay-Melanau majority, while slightly over 20 are Iban majority, 15 are Chinese-majority seats and Bidayuh seven.

Based on 2011 state election, Chinese-majority areas are opposition strongholds while BN has most of the Iban, Bidayuh and Malay-Melanau seats.

3. How many state seats are up for grab? What about the redelineation?

As Malaysia's largest state, Sarawak have the biggest number of state assemblypersons, a total of 71. Both the state assembly and Parliament have given their approval to the electoral redelineation, increasing the state seats by 11, making the total now at 82.

Opposition parties fiercely criticised the exercise for favouring BN as most of the newly-crafted seats are in the ruling party strongholds.

It is a known fact that Sarawak faces electoral malapportionment. For example, the newly-formed Gedong in Serian has the state's smallest number of voters of 6,340 while the largest number of voters can be found in Pelawan in Sibu (31,388 voters), a ratio of five to one.

Alliance/BN have won the previous 10 state elections with two-thirds majority, except in 1987 with saw BN returning to power with a simple majority. This was the result of a severe split within the ruling party.

Two years after retirement from Sarawak's governor post, Rahman Yaakub assembled Sarawak state assemblypersons in Ming Court Hotel, Kuala Lumpur in 1987, in a bid to bring down his nephew, Taib.

But Taib called for snap election and successfully crushed the coup by winning 28 against 20 seats.

4. What are the parties in Sarawak BN? Any further infighting?

While Umno's Sang Saka Bangsa flags can be found in every other parts in Malaysia, the same cannot be said in Sarawak.

Local ruling party PBB has dominated the state’s political landscape. It was formed through a merger between bumiputera-based Panas and Muslim bumiputera-based, bumiputera and Dayak-based Pesaka in 1973.

The other Sarawak BN components are Chinese-based SUPP, Dayak-based SPDP and PRS. In the last election, PBB, SUPP, SPDP and PRS won 20 seats - six, eight and six seats respectively – while PBB bagged 35 seats.

SUPP and SPDP have since broken up into two parties - UPP and Teras. Both are led by Sarawak senior ministers, Wong Soon Koh and William Mawan.

As the dispute on seats occurred between original and splinter parties, Adenan has been forced to propose BN-direct candidates to settle the infighting. As such, SUPP reportedly need to give up seven seats for UPP.

Will the solution put the infighting to rest or will BN component parties have three-cornered fights among them?

5. What about infighting among the opposition?

Seat disputes among opposition parties — DAP, PKR, Amanah and PAS — may also see multi-cornered battles in certain constituencies.

In the 2011 state election, DAP and PKR produced their best performance, grabbing 12 and three seats respectively.

Insert: Chart 1:2011 Sarawak state election result chart 1

It is understood that DAP and PKR have reduced their overlapping claims to nine seats after four rounds of negotiations.

The seats yet to be resolved are Senadin, Batu Kitang, Mulu, Marudi, Tasik Biru, Mambong, Simanggang, Lambir and Bukit Semuja.

However, it was reported that Amanah is also eyeing the Batu Kitang and Senadin seats, while PAS is gunning for Lambir and Senadin. At the same time, Amanah and PAS may have a tussle at Samalaju, Beting Maro and Pantai Damai.

To make the situation even more complicated, PAS is also aiming for arch enemy DAP's Batu Kawah and Dudong. This may contribute to quite a few multi-cornered fights.

6. What will the impact of the Adenan factor?

Since taking over the chief ministership, Adenan has portrayed himself as a clean and open leader. He has also appealed to voters to give him one term, as he plans to retire before the next state polls following this one.

On taking over from Taib, Adenan has introduced a number of policies, including allocation for Chinese independent high schools and recognising its Unified Examination Certificate (UEC).

Among his promises are the abolition of state road tolls and land premium, reducing electricity tariffs and fighting for 20 percent oil royalty.

He also dangles the carrot of Sarawak nationalism to woo urban Chinese voters and at the same time, he hits the opposition by banning key leaders from entering Sarawak in a move to curb their strength.

As Adenan launches his offensive, the opposition is having difficulty to reignite the anti-Taib Mahmud sentiment, which was apparent in the previous election.

Conceding that Adenan's charisma is hard to beat, the opposition took the defensive position by attacking Najib's Goods and Services Tax (GST) and the RM2.6 billion scandal instead.

However, pundits are saying Najib's scandal will not be a determining factor in the upcoming election.

7. Which are the hot seats?

As Adenan works hard to win opposition-held Chinese seats, focus will be on the following 16 urban seats:

Greater Kuching (6 seats)

Kota Sentosa, Pending, Padungan, Batu Kawah, Batu Lintang and Batu Kitang

Greater Sibu (7 seats)

Repok, Meradong, Bukit Assek. Dudong, Pelawan, Bawang Assan and Tanjong Batu

Greater Miri (3 seats)

Piasau, Pujut and Senadin

At the same time, DAP and PKR have quietly venture into BN traditional stronghold Dayak areas via Impian Sarawak by raising issues on native customary land and dams. They have their eyes on the following seats:

Dayak seats

Opar, Tasik Biru, Mulu, Marudi, Ba'Kelalan, Simanggang, Lambir and Bukit Semuja

In conclusion, the state opposition needs to defend all its 13 Chinese seats and two Dayak seats while hoping to make some inroad in key Dayak seats.

However, it would be an uphill task to deny BN its two-thirds majority, as the opposition parties will have to double their existing haul to 28.

-Mkini