Turkey : When you are too proud of your race and you cannot make useful products

Folks, for those of you who are interested, there was that attempted coup in Turkey on July 12, 2016. Since the coup attempt, tens of thousands of people have been purged from their positions in Turkey, people accused of being supportive of the coup.  One view is that the speed at which people have been removed suggests that the coup was a  'false flag' operation carried out by Erdogan to preserve himself in power.  

Turkey is now a very divided nation and on the brink of calamity.

Hardly a month later, in the last week of August 2016 Erdogan has made another blunder. He has invaded Syria and has occupied about 56 miles of Syrian territory stretching from a place called Jarablus to Azaz. Please see map.

Erdogan thinks that this is a great victory.  The stated reason was to chase out the ISIS from these areas.  The real reason however is so that the Turks could take territory from the Kurdish people who already populate the area and were defeating the ISIS.  The Turks do not like the Kurds. 

There was no real battle to 'liberate' Jarablus. Media reports say that the ISIS vacated the area and the Turkish Army just drove into town and pretended to claim victory.  Others say that the ISIS are under the protection of the Turks.

It has also been reported that Turkey invaded Jarablus not just with Russia's knowledge but with Putin's blessing.  It is part of the chess game.  

Erdogan has now committed troops (as well as his entire reputation) to Jarablus. Can the Turks hold this territory? The answer is no. The Kurds are more powerful than ever. There will be continuous guerrilla warfare and attacks against the Turks. Jarablus is about to become Turkey's 'Yemen'. Erdogan has walked into a Putin trap.  It will suck in Turkey's men, materials and their reputation.  Putin can then really control Erdogan's fate. 

Here is an article about Turkey from July. It is still valid:

Turkey on the ropes
July 02, 2016 

sign of the collapse of Turkey.
Presidency of Erdogan cataclysmic for Turkey 

perfect storm of crises, each of them very serious:

1) Crisis in Syria: Turkish support for Daesh to overthrow Assad failed. Daesh turning against Turkey. The entire Syria policy in shambles.

2) Crisis with EU: last thing Brits did before Brexiting was to tell Turkey that it could join the EU in 3000 years. EU states know this is true. Erdogan-Merkel friendship completely fizzled out.

3) Crisis with Armenians: German Parliament recognized Armenian genocide, so did the Pope. West sending Turkey simple message: raised middle finger. Screw you!

4) Crisis with USA: US special forces wearing Kurdish badges, greatly angered Turks. Bottom line: US needs Kurds in Iraq, Syria. Turkey takes second place.

5) Crisis with Iran:  supporting Daesh, sabotage “Islamic pipeline” and trying to overthrow Assad, Turkey completely alienated Tehran.

6) Crisis with Kurds: brutal anti-Kurdish violence, Turks re-ignited full scale civil war. Kurds showing no signs of weakness. Kurds currently more powerful than ever, courtesy of  US.

7) Crisis with NATO: following downing of Russian SU-24, NATO indicated to Erdogan he was on his own. NATO would not get involved in a Turkey-triggered war.

8) Crisis with Russia: downing of SU-24 resulted in 7 months crippling economic sanctions by Russia, enormous loss of prestige for Turkey. 

Erdogan has shown incompetence, arrogance and delusion.
Erdogan had to write letter of apology : full and humiliating apology.
compensation would be paid. Turkey would pay whatever was demanded.

stakes in Turkey are now sky-high 

Erdogan fighting for his future 

and possibly future of Turkey as a state. 

His opening towards Russia and Israel sign of despair. 

Russia unlikely to offer much 

Russians deeply suspicious of Erdogan 

consider him loose cannon, lunatic who cannot be trusted 

Russians will demand tangible steps from Turkey in Syria 

Turkey sponsored terrorism in Russia and Ukraine. 

Russians making many tough demands

Erdogan deluded he is some kind of major player 

now discovering that he is not. 

has many dangerous enemies, no friends at all.

Erdogan turning to Russia in despair 

Russians very cautious

Russians possibly want Erdogan out. 

Turkey extremely important, strategically located 

Russia cannot afford delusional lunatic ruling it. 

Turks have major problem : severe multiple personality disorder. 

have to decide if they want to be secular Europeans, “Young Turk” neo-Fascist nationalists, Islamic radicals, Kemalist secularists? 

mono-ethnic Turkey impossible 

accept that others live there too

Right now, Turkey is anti-European, anti-Russian, anti-American, anti-Kurdish, anti-Armenian, anti-Christian, anti-Arabic, anti-Persian, anti-Greek, etc. 

Turkey a big powder keg which any spark could detonate. 

problem for Russia is that this powder keg is uncomfortably close 

deeply involved in Ukraine, Crimea, Caucasus and Central Asia.
 

Russia’s strategic interest to have responsible, trustworthy Turkey 

problem is Turkey is unsustainable country.
Turkey built on rabidly nationalist/racist worldview 

no hope for anybody that does not agree with this worldview. 

for Turks, Kurds are either “mountain Turks” or “terrorists” who deserve to be shot. 

genocide of Armenians, Christian Assyrians, Syrians, Chaldeans and Greeks

Turks still deny this genocide 

this genocide has never stopped, but only slowed down

Genocide aims to erase all traces of minority group’s identity

Armenian women and children forced to convert to Islam

Turks still occupy Northern Cyprus (since 1974). 

long term goal for Russia is support break-up or federalization of Turkey

good news for Russia : Turks making this easy

brace for likely flare-up of violence in Turkey, inevitable fallout.

Turkey – future looks very grim. 

strategic situation for Turkey will not improve

unless Turkish state itself changes 

something Turkish people not willing to accept