Umno-PN Divorce Is No Longer If, But When

 

Playing with numbers on paper may make it appear like it is workable. But theory is one thing. Put into practice, we need to take into consideration the human factor, which is the egos of the many personalities involved. After all, the Umno-Bersatu conflict is all about egos anyway. Hence this will also be a stumbling block for any post-Muhyiddin or post-GE15 agreement, whether it is a vote of no confidence or a snap GE15.

NO HOLDS BARRED

Raja Petra Kamarudin

Umno Supreme Council member Mohd Puad Zarkashi said Umno will undoubtedly leave Perikatan Nasional, and it is only a matter of when that is going to happen. This will most likely happen once Parliament has been dissolved to make way for a snap general election or GE15. Until then, Umno will remain in Perikatan to play the role of thorn in the side or duri dalam daging.

Umno is trying to push for Parliament to be reconvened so that a vote of no confidence can be passed against Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin. If Umno unites with Pakatan Harapan, they can most likely get 120-125 votes, enough to pass the vote of no confidence — as they need only 111 out of 220 votes to win a simple majority to oust Muhyiddin.

The only snag is, Umno will have to agree for Anwar Ibrahim to become the Prime Minister or PM9 if Muhyiddin is successfully ousted. But then, would replacing Muhyiddin with Anwar merely be a case of out of the frying pan and into the fire? Muhyiddin may be bad, according to Umno’s reckoning, but Anwar may be far worse.

Anwar cannot survive without DAP and DAP’s proxy, Parti Amanah. Just PKR and Umno minus DAP and Amanah is not enough to hold on to power. However, as Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad confessed, he faced a lot of problems with DAP in the 22 months Pakatan Harapan was in power.

Just Lim Guan Eng and Tommy Thomas alone gave Mahathir a headache. Eventually, Mahathir decided not to retire and hand power to Anwar in May 2020 after all because he felt DAP was out of control and once Anwar took over all hell would break loose.

Umno and Pakatan Harapan may be united in wanting Muhyiddin out. But can Umno and Pakatan Harapan mutually agree on Anwar as PM9? Umno is being very vague about the matter. They have only agreed to work with Pakatan Harapan to oust Muhyiddin, but they have thus far not given their commitment as to whether they will agree to Anwar taking over as PM9.

Umno will want an Umno candidate as PM9 if they work with Pakatan Harapan to oust Muhyiddin. Pakatan Harapan, however will never agree to that. They will insist on Anwar as the candidate for Prime Minister. And if the Prime Minister comes from Pakatan Harapan, will Umno be treated any better than how it is being treated now?

However, if Pakatan Harapan agrees to Umno’s demand that the Prime Minister comes from Umno, who from Umno will be the Prime Minister? Currently, there are more than half a dozen camps in Umno, so it may be impossible for the many factions to agree on a mutual candidate.

The issue of ousting Muhyiddin is one issue, and not really the most difficult issue. What is more complex would be the question of what will happen post-Muhyiddin. If Muhyiddin is kicked out, who takes control after that? This would be like what happened after the Russians were kicked out of Afghanistan. The Taliban just ended up killing one another.

Umno has taken its quarrel with Bersatu beyond the point of no certain. So much has been said, which would now be impossible to take back. Umno cannot now U-turn and kiss and make up with Bersatu. To do so would be a serious loss of face for Umno after what it has said about Muhyiddin and Bersatu.

According to Lokman Noor Adam, a Najib Tun Razak hardcore supporter, Barisan Nasional would be contesting all 222 parliament seats in the coming general election. That would mean Umno would be taking the lion’s share of the seats, probably 140 or so. If that is true, that would mean Barisan Nasional would be engaged in three-corner (or more) contests with Pakatan Harapan and Perikatan Nasional.

That may result in a hung parliament with no one controlling more than 112 seats. And that would mean as soon as the election results are known the three coalitions would be engaged in heavy horse-trading to agree on a ‘partnership’ to form the new government. And Malaysia would be back to square one: a coalition of enemies getting together merely to form the government but with no love for one another.

Playing with numbers on paper may make it appear like it is workable. But theory is one thing. Put into practice, we need to take into consideration the human factor, which is the egos of the many personalities involved. After all, the Umno-Bersatu conflict is all about egos anyway. Hence this will also be a stumbling block for any post-Muhyiddin or post-GE15 agreement, whether it is a vote of no confidence or a snap GE15.