Will Umno’s middle ground gambit pay off in Johor?

 

“At the national level, it’ll also give a clear signal that BN’s prospects of winning the next general election are very bright.”

– Najib Abdul Razak

Umno is all about the middle ground in Johor. For a legacy race-based party which for decades (with its partners) enjoyed populist support, this going back to basics, after a brief sojourn with PAS and the rest of the Sheraton traitors, ominously heralds a return to the kind of “political stability” that defined Malaysian politics for decades.

Johor Umno deputy chief Nur Jazlan Mohamed taking his shots at PAS claimed that the Islamic party is bereft of ideas and all they talk about is polygamy and promoting ridiculous practices like saying husbands can beat their wives “lightly”.

All this sounds like old times. Retired journalists have been sending me newspaper clippings of decades-old Umno attacks against PAS that use the same kind of rhetoric.

Indeed PAS causes more problems for Perikatan Nasional (PN) in the moderation department than the incompetency of the whole regime.

Nur Jazlan even trained his sights on the grand poobah of PAS, when he said: “Look at the party’s leader, Abdul Hadi Awang. He is the prime minister’s special envoy to the Middle East but he is not allowed to enter some of the countries in the region because of his adherence to a different school of thought in Islam.

“Then he goes to Qatar to meet the Taliban leaders although Malaysia does not have any diplomatic ties with them. On top of that, he pledges aid for them, which he should not do as it is a government policy matter.”

Nur Jazlan is like former prime minister Najib Abdul Razak (above). They are all about wooing middle-ground voters, especially non-Malays – this means Chinese voters – on the political (do not call it a comeback, Najib never left ) trail after the victory in Malacca changed the political fortunes of Umno.

Johor Umno deputy chief Nur Jazlan Mohamed

Johor PN elections director Hamzah Zainudin claimed that BN candidates are supporters of the court cluster which is threading the needle because the current prime minister is from Umno and apparently PN is part of the federal government. So according to PN, Umno/BN is corrupt except when it is not.

Johor DAP chief Liew Chin Tong believes that Najib could be a turn off for middle ground voters. Indeed both Nur Jazlan and Liew hope that Johor’s mixed seat would be an advantage to their coalitions.

Liew said that Najib is a figure with no middle ground but the reality is that Najib is not on the ballot.

Do people really think that voters who voted for Umno/BN, especially in the recent state elections, really did so because it was a vote for Najib? What about the seats Pakatan Harapan and the DAP lost? Did Najib secure those votes too?

Support from the Chinese community

Indeed, people seem to think that it is a joke when Najib goes campaigning with Chinese “business people” in a Chinese school.

However, here is the thing: Najib is not aiming to secure the vote of the entire Chinese community in Johor. What he is aiming to do is secure enough support from the Chinese community to get Umno’s candidates over the line with Malay support.

And if the MCA or MIC candidates manage to get through, then not only does Umno get bragging rights of how BN is a moderate coalition – which PN is not – but also reinforces the idea that BN is the only coalition that brings about political stability.

Beyond the toll that this pandemic has had on people's lives, what I think people really want is some form of stability. Any kind of stability.

And because Harapan with all its factional politics, its inability to coalesce around a prime minister in waiting and its constant need to placate ketuanan ideas, thereby jeopardising its base, seems like just another coalition that is threatening the establishment and not a government-in-waiting.

PN after all has no central message beyond calling out the court cluster while working with them on a federal level, which sends mixed messages.

Anyone perusing the online and real-world propaganda by Umno would understand that not only is Umno attempting to plant its flag in the middle ground, it is also attempting to win over the majority by claiming that PN has failed the Malay masses with economic hardship through incompetent leadership (which they blame on Muhyiddin Yassin) and bankrupt Islamic ideas, which they blame on PAS.

This is the reason why Umno potentates and lackeys have been rather demurring on hot button religious issues.

This is why Nur Jazlan mocked PAS for its religious rhetoric and claimed they are bereft of ideas when the reality is that Umno sucked on to PAS after its fall and murmured Malay/Islamic unity.

Harapan needs to win decisively in Johor because, even if there is a split government or some sort of wonky coalition cobbled together, Umno and Najib will thrive on the political chaos.

It would demonstrate that Harapan will always be a contender and the Harapan base will become even more apathetic.

The fact is this. Umno does not have to win big in Johor to remain relevant but Harapan needs to win big because a resurgent Umno will find itself petitioned by all manner of political frogs, which would ensure its hegemony.

It really does not matter how many votes Umno/BN won by and it is extremely naïve to take comfort in the granular data coming out from past elections.

In politics, perception is everything and if the majority believes that Umno is in ascension, the perception will become the reality. - Mkini

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S THAYAPARAN is Commander (Rtd) of the Royal Malaysian Navy. Fīat jūstitia ruat cælum - “Let justice be done though the heavens fall.”

The views expressed here are those of the author/contributor and do not necessarily represent the views of MMKtT.