‘All or nothing’ Reds can still pip City

 

“If you are first, you are first; if you are second, you are nothing.”

So said legendary Liverpool manager, Bill Shankly.

Those immortal words will resonate with the Reds as they enter the final straight of the English Premier League season trailing Manchester City by a single point.

For that’s how they finished in 2019.

Shankly’s view may have seemed harsh then – Liverpool bagged a record points haul for second place and became European Champions a week later.

But being pipped at the post for a first title in nearly three decades was a devastating blow.

So, the mantra will serve as a chilling reminder that deja vu is an ever-present danger.

And history is still favoured to repeat itself even with nine league games to go.

Despite the Reds lopping chunks of an eight-point gap, the bookies have City odds-on to retain their crown.

Not only will they have home advantage for their blockbuster clash the following weekend, but, on paper at least, they look to have the easier run-in.

Liverpool are the only top six team City face whereas the Reds meet Manchester United and Tottenham, who both – all jokes aside – harbour top four ambitions.

On the other hand, after that City game, four of Liverpool’s remaining seven matches are at home.

On the potentially fateful final day, both Reds and Blues have comfortable-looking home fixtures against mid-table opponents in Wolves and Aston Villa respectively.

The April 10 clash at the Etihad may look like a decider but league form could still be affected by other competitions.

Both clubs are still in the Champions League and FA Cup, where they meet in the semi-final.

They’ve been kept apart in Europe so if they do cross paths, it will be in the final.

So, the two managers who are widely considered the best in the business will be seeing a lot of each other in the coming weeks.

It really is a mouthwatering prospect to see them go mano a mano into the frenetic climax.

Chelsea’s Thomas Tuchel retains only a mathematical interest in the domestic title but don’t discount his cussed team from having an impact in the knock-out tournaments.

Indeed, a premature exit from one or both may even be seen as an advantage – more rest time – in the league. Such are the fine margins.

In fact, it could come down to millimetres – as it did in 2019.

Back then Sergio Aguero’s goal for Man City against Burnley was 29.55mm over the line – and enough to count.

Sadio Mane’s shot for Liverpool against City was 12 mm short – and didn’t.

Just two of the standout fine margin moments that separated the eventual winners from the runners-up.

In terms of form, Liverpool have a definite edge with 12 wins in 13 games and the only defeat (to Inter Milan) meant they still won the tie on aggregate.

In that time, City have dropped points at Southampton and Crystal Palace, and lost at home to Spurs.

How they didn’t beat Palace may come to haunt them as much as North Macedonia haunt Italy. The matches were similarly one-sided.

Pep Guardiola will be sending that great football brain of his into overdrive to find out why they have lost the invincible look of midwinter.

Could the failure to get a natural No 9 have cost them in the end?

As they were banging in the goals from everywhere to amass that 8-point lead, it seemed a silly question.

But now they’ve dried up. And if they don’t win it?

Just as it looked as if Afcon might be the death knell for Liverpool’s chances, Juergen Klopp’s men responded to the absence of Mane and Mo Salah with maximum points.

And in came Luis Diaz who looks the ideal addition to that aging front line.

It’s fair to say the Colombian dynamo fitted in better in 10 minutes than Jack Grealish still has for City – and he cost less than half as much.

What an irony! Liverpool beating City in the transfer market! Moneyball beating Moneybags!

City’s pursuit of Erling Braut Haaland is a tacit admission they needed Harry Kane more than his England colleague.

Their goal difference is also three inferior to Liverpool’s.

Grealish wasn’t needed at all, Diaz was. His arrival could be a title-changer.

As we seek to find chinks of light between these two sides, the latest international break may have helped City more.

It stopped Liverpool’s momentum and perhaps allowed City to regroup – at least when they all get back together.

But both resume against relegation threatened sides, Liverpool at home to Watford, City away to Burnley.

Neither will be taken lightly with revenge also on Liverpool’s mind after a slip-up to the Hornets being one of just two league defeats all season.

With wins over Burnley on their last six visits, City have given the lie to Turf Moor’s reputation as a tough place to go, but this time will find the hosts may be less hospitable as they’re fighting for survival.

When it comes to their midweek assignments in the Champions League, Liverpool’s is by some distance the easier.

The Reds go to Benfica who were a tad fortunate to knock out Juventus and are along with Villareal the whipping boys in the last eight.

Also on Tuesday, City need to be at their most clinical against Atletico Madrid who didn’t even have to be at their cynical worst to see off the red team in Manchester a fortnight ago.

No one likes playing Diego Simeone’s side as they bring the anti-football of their manager with them.

You could not get a greater contrast in philosophies about the game than the Argentine and Guardiola.

But anything less than a two-goal cushion could mean an anxious night in the Spanish capital next week.

But before that there’s the small matter of the set-to with Liverpool.

And the quad-chasing Reds, even with the Carabao Cup in the bag, will be playing their three other tournaments as if it’s all or nothing. - FMT

The views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily reflect those of MMKtT.