PH unlikely to hit Amirudin’s 50-seat target, says analyst

 

Political analyst Mujibu Abd Muis (left) says Amirudin Shari should expect PH and BN to face a stern test in seats where Malay voters make up at least 60% of the electorate.

PETALING JAYA: Selangor Pakatan Harapan (PH) chief Amirudin Shari’s target of winning 50 seats at the looming state election is unrealistic, according to a political analyst.

Mujibu Abd Muis of Universiti Teknologi Mara (UiTM) said the target would be difficult to achieve given rival Perikatan Nasional (PN) won six of the state’s 22 parliamentary seats it contested at the 15th general election in November last year.

He said the PH-Barisan Nasional alliance may face a stern test in up to half of the 56 seats where Malay voters make up at least 60% of the electorate.

“I find (Amirudin’s target) hugely idealistic considering the different scenarios, the threat of swing votes (in favour of PN), and the possibility of low voter turnout,” Mujibu told FMT.

However, he believed the PH-BN partnership still had sufficient support to ensure it secures a simple majority to allow it to retain the state administration.

On Monday, Amirudin said he was confident PH and BN could together garner more than 50 seats in the upcoming state election.

Selangor dissolved its state assembly on June 23, and will go to the polls in the coming weeks, alongside Negeri Sembilan, Penang, Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu.

Meanwhile, Sepang DAP leader Azfar Faruqi said a more realistic target for PH and BN would be 40 seats.

He expects PN’s current momentum in northern Selangor, to pose a significant obstacle to PH and BN.

In the last general election, PN won six of Selangor’s parliamentary seats, Sabak Bernam, Sungai Besar, Tanjung Karang, Hulu Selangor, Kapar and Kuala Langat, all previously PH or BN strongholds.

“Let’s not forget that the deep-rooted sentiment (among BN grassroots) of rejecting PH or vice-versa is still strong. We need to work tirelessly if we want to win over the voters,” Azfar said.

Nevertheless, he still believes PH and BN will remain in power after the election, albeit with a reduced majority.

Ampang PKR chief Syed Ahmad Syed Abdul Rahman Alhadad, however, was more positive in his outlook and backed the Selangor menteri besar’s 50-seat target.

He said PH should focus on the state government’s achievements since 2008, the successes of the unity government at federal level and bread-and-butter issues affecting the rakyat.

“Selangorians are very aware that the state is an important component in the federal context because almost 25% of Malaysia’s GDP comes from here. What happens in Selangor will affect the federal government and vice-versa,” said Syed Ahmad. - FMT