Ringgit Scuba Dive : Current Account Surplus Decreased 30 TIMES Q3/Q4 2023. Exports fell 35.6% Q4.

• Q4 2023 current account surplus paltry RM300m (0.1% of GDP) 
• Q3 2023 current account surplus RM9.1 billion (2% of GDP)
• Exports fell 35.6% in Q4 2023
  

 

By Muhammad Abdul Khalid, PhD.

economy grew disappointing 3.7% last year, below govt estimates of 4-5%
last quarter 2023, economy expanded 3%, lower than preceding quarter
economic growth slowed from 3.9% in Oct to 1.4% in Dec 23

diminishing current account balance 
weakness in manufacturing sector
slower tourism recovery post-Covid
weakening ringgit 
slow growth in real wages

• Diminishing trade surplus
• current account balance getting smaller
• difference between exports and imports
• Q4 2023 current account surplus paltry RM300m (0.1% of GDP) 
• Q3 2023 current account surplus RM9.1 billion (2% of GDP)
• closer to a potential deficit
• impact will be severe
• ringgit will be affected 
• will require more US dollars to pay for imports

ringgit weakest now since Asian Financial Crisis (1998?)
all-time low against Singapore dollar.
In 12 months, ringgit weakened 10% against USD, euro, pound
about 8% against Singapore dollar.

• Weakness in manufacturing and services
• Manufacturing losing momentum.
• grew just 0.7% in 2023 
• quarterly basis, shrank by 0.3% in Q4 
• 0.1% decline in Q3

• services sector notable dip  
• 4.2% growth in Q4
• 5% growth in Q3 
• 7.3% growth in Q1

• Tourism
• Chinese have yet to come back in droves
• half as many visitors from China last year  
• Singapore 40% of tourist arrivals last year.

• Declining exports
• net exports have declined  
• falling 35.6% in Q4 compared to 23% in Q3.
• major reversal from the 54% growth in Q1

• What lies ahead
• 2024 will be challenging
• economy highly susceptible to external factors.
• persistent geopolitical tension affecting Suez Canal  
• weak global trade will put pressure on purchasing power
• We need policies that boost investors’ confidence
• leaders who respect governance 
• hard-working, truthful to the public.

• Conflicting narratives
• half-baked statements
• Madani rice 
• fluctuations in ringgit
• delayed policy reforms
• confuse the public, investors 
• undermine confidence, economic stability.

2024 will be painful year

My Comments : 

2024 is going to be bad, very bad. 
That war in Ukraine must come to an end. 
Also that war in Gaza and the shooting missiles in the Red Sea.

The views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily reflect those of MMKtT.