A PERFECT STORM IN EUROPE

Massive winds of change are already blowing through Europe. The outcome of the most recent European Union elections have captured the people's rejection of the present status quo in European politics. Which is confusion, dont know where they are headed, de-industrialisation, even forgetting that they are European.

1.  The next session of the new EU Parliament will be from July 16 - 19. There are going to be fireworks because there will be a large presence of brand new right-wing European Parliamentarians including those who would like to leave the EU or even see the EU dissolved. Which will not happen so quickly but  for certain the right-wing Parliamentarians will want to see the powers of the EU Parliament curbed. There will be fireworks. 

There are two more earthquakes coming in Europe. 

2. The UK are having their elections on  Thursday 4th July, 2024. That is also the American Independence Day. What a coincidence. (As a student I recall going down to the levee by the Wabash River in West Lafayette to catch the 4th of July fireworks and the orchestra).

Anyway British PM Rishi Sunak and his Conservative Party are almost certainly going to lose their underwear. Sunak might even be the first prime minister in the history of Britain to lose in his own constituency.

At this point in time (two weeks away) the Labour Party under an unpronounceable name is touted as being the most likely winner. But there is a possibility of the unexpected. 

The unexpected is Nigel Farage of the British Reform Party who is suddenly very popular. Even people who say "I dont trust him" say 'I will vote for him" in the same breath. Latest polls put the Reform Party having 24% support among British voters. That is a sizeable amount of support. If it increases anymore (30%?) over the next two weeks Nigel Farage is a man to be watched.

Farage who was called Mr Brexit made it a career to campaign for Brexit for 27 years (according to him). 27 years ago it made him look like a weirdo. Finally 27 years later it was the Conservatives who pulled Britain out of the EU. They let Nigel Farage make the final countdown at the Brexit celebrations on Feb 1st, 2020.   

Here is a short clip of Nigel Farage so that you may know what the man looks and sounds like. He can be quite entertaining too. 

 

We will know what happens in Britain on July 4th. But it is almost certain that Rishi Sunak and the Conservative Party will become history.

3. The French are going to the polls on Sunday June 30th and then they will have a second round runoff elections on Sunday July 7th 2024. Fresh from sweeping the EU Parliament polls in France, Madame Marine Le Pen's National Rally Party is expected to make a sweep in the snap polls as well. Macron will lose big time. In such event Le Pen's right hand man 28 year old Jordan Bardella is expected to become the youngest French prime minister ever. Picture below.

As the leader of her National Rally Party, Le Pen will likely run for president again in 2027.  If France holds steady, they may have their first female president then. Vive la France.

Nigel Farage, Marine Le Pen, Giorgia Meloni (Italy), Viktor Orban (Hungary), Geert Wilders (Holland), Vladimir Putin plus a few other leaders are basically nationalists. I think they are getting tired of the "European" project. The late Mr Lee Kuan Yew always said that the European Union will fail. "The European Union expanded too fast and will probably fail, Lee Kuan Yew said back in 2012"

They may all be white but Europeans are still a very diverse people. Even their Christianity differs greatly across Europe. In Ukraine, west of the Dnieper River they are Roman Catholic and east of the river the church is Russian Orthodox. That alone is enough to start fighting.  Then there is the garlic issue.  Plus the Italians talk with their hands. The British talk like Nigel Farage. There are differences.

The French elections will try to reset France and Europe back to being independent states and taking control of their own futures. 

The views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily reflect those of MMKtT.