The Middle East Tension That Never Was?

 

First of all lets look at why the Middle East is of any news worthiness at all - oil.  But the oil price is now US$68, which is relatively 'low'. There appears to be no 'tension' in world oil prices.

And this is the oil price despite three of the largest oil producers in the world - Venezuela, Russia and Iran - being barred from selling their oil openly in the world oil markets. They have been sanctioned by the west. 

So how can oil be used as a weapon against the west when the west itself has shut out the top three oil producers in the world? 

So what then is the point of closing the Straits of Hormuz? They can just lift the ban on Venezuela or Russia and oil will drop below US$70 again. Plus it is yet to be proven if the Iranian Navy (consisting of motor boats and catamarans) has the capacity to shut down the Straits of Hormuz. Iran does not have a real airforce either.

The sudden and unexpected killing of Ismail Haniyeh in Iran has exposed many things. Firstly the ayatollahs have still not 'retaliated' against Israel for Haniyeh's killing - despite making numerous threats that they would. One reason could be Israel denied any role in the Haniyeh killing. The Israelis usually neither confirm nor deny (they remain silent), confirm (that they did something) or deny that they were involved. In Haniyeh's case they denied.

Now it is being rumoured that the death of Iranian president Ibrahim Raisi in that helicopter crash was no accident. The Israelis have denied any involvement. And strangely in the Raisi crash the Iranians did not threaten any retaliation against Israel. Why not? 

Then that Fuad Shakur fellow was also killed in Beirut - for which the ayatollahs again made threats to retaliate against Israel.  Still nothing has happened.

Now the ayatollahs have again threatened to retaliate for the killing of Hassan Nasrallah - but again so far nothing has happened. Complicating the 'retaliation' is the ayatollahs declaring five days of mourning in Iran over Nasrallah's death. That is an acceptable way of postponing any retaliation - while in mourning. 

The joke is the ayatollahs now threaten that they promise to issue another threat next week.

In April this year the ayatollahs did fire 350 missiles but they all missed their targets, fell in the desert (and injured a 12 year old Arab Bedouin girl)   or were shot down. Their retaliation just fizzled out. The world anticipated the Israeli counter strike which came with just one missile hit. The Israelis took out the air defense system (S300) in Natanz, the center of Iran's nuclear processing plants. It was a clear signal - the Iranian nuclear facilities were simply too vulnerable.

Hamas has already been almost completely wiped out. The still anticipated rescuing alive of the remaining 101 Israeli hostages being kept in tunnels and other places in Gaza is complicating things. I do not anticipate a good ending there. 

The almost complete dismantling of Hezbollah over the past two weeks has exposed plenty of hype about the outfit. Their bite is worse than their bark. The Israelis have taken out the entire Hezbollah leadership, including Hassan Nasrallah after that Hezbollah rocket killed 12  Arab Druze children playing soccer on a playing field.  Hezbollah is now in complete disarray and it looks like they will never be able to recover from this disaster.

The entire enterprise has become one big disaster for Hamas and Hezbollah. They have both come to a terrible end. It has become super clear that both Hamas and Hezbollah were local militia who DID NOT get carried away by their own propaganda about their military capacity. They had none.  But on October 7th 2023 they were told to embark on this suicidal mission. Their suicidal mission is now complete. Both Hamas and Hezbollah have committed suicide, their leaders have been killed and they have nothing to show. 

But Hamas did not receive its orders from inside Gaza and Hezbollah did not receive its orders from inside Lebanon. Hamas takes orders from the Muslim Brotherhood and Iran while Hezbollah was created and mentored everyday by the ayatollahs in Iran. Both of them took orders from far outside Gaza or Lebanon. From people who are playing their own games of survival (not to lose their heads, literally).

That is how both Hamas and Hezbollah got sacrificed by their mentors. They were both disposable.  

Other players too have lost money - Qatar. Qatar is perhaps the dumbest Arab country among the Gulf Arabs. Over the years they have spent hundreds of millions of US Dollars (if not billions) propping up both the Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas. All that Qatar money poured into Hamas has just gone down into rubble. Qatar never imagined that Hamas would take orders from others (like the Muslim Brotherhood and Iran) to commit suicide. But they did take orders from others and now they have committed suicide. Qatar's billions have been burnt to ashes. 

So what have they achieved? Nothing. 

Did Hamas liberate Gaza? But they are already living in Gaza and fully in charge of Gaza.

Did Hezbollah liberate southern Lebanon? But they were already living in Lebanon which is an independent country and in control of all its territory. There are no territorial disputes between Lebanon and Israel. 

But back to the point - exactly what tensions are there in the Middle East? If Israel invades south Lebanon next, nothing will happen in the rest of the middle east. The ayatollahs will not do anything. The ayatollahs have already sacrificed both Hamas and Hezbollah. 

The ayatollahs are very certain of what they want - they want Iran. They dont care about Sunni Hamas, or Sunni dominated Gaza or the Sunni run Al Aqsa Mosque or even Lebanon. The ayatollahs are Iranians. They are not Arabs. If the Arabs want to die, then let them die.

This is what is happening in the Middle East. The Middle east is the home of some of the dumbest and most stupid human beings that ever walked on the surface of the earth.

The views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily reflect those of MMKtT.