Iran trumps the US by taking a leaf from its playbook

 Iran gives the US a taste of its own medicine by weaponising its control over the strategic Strait of Hormuz.

In the space of less than a year, Donald Trump – re-elected as US President on his promise of stopping “endless wars” – has transitioned from igniting a global trade war to launching a war of aggression against Iran.

In the process, he has not only found himself trapped in a Middle East quagmire but also ironically “Made Iran Great Again”, in contrast with his earlier election campaign slogan “Make America Great Again” (MAGA).

On the face of it, Iran is being outgunned and out bombed by America, the world’s pre-eminent superpower and global hegemon, and its sidekick Israel.

Trump and his Secretary of War Pete Hegseth have repeatedly said Iran has been crushed, defeated and obliterated. However, nothing could be further from the truth.

Since the US and Israel launched its attack on Iran on Feb 28 and assassinated its Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran has retaliated by striking Israel, US military bases in the region, and neighbouring gulf states with a barrage of missiles and drones.

Despite the relentless bombing by the Americans and Israelis, Iran has managed to hold its own, giving them a bloody nose in the process.

Iran’s nuclear option is not what you think

One of the justifications given by Trump for the attack on Iran was that it was on the verge of making nuclear bombs. With its cache of highly enriched uranium, Tehran does have “nuclear options” on the table. However, it’s not an atomic bomb.

Iran’s most powerful weapon in its arsenal is its geography. Whether by a quirk of fate or blessing from Heaven, Iran is so strategically located that it can exert its dominance and control over the Strait of Hormuz.

This strait is the most vital chokepoint in the global oil system. Nearly 20% of the world’s oil supply flows through this narrow waterway, and any prolonged disruption to the flow of oil and gas tankers will bring shockwaves to the global economy.

So, Iran does not need a nuclear bomb to destroy its adversaries – it already has a weapon of mass economic destruction. That is why the defacto closure of the strait is Iran’s most powerful weapon, and Trump’s biggest nightmare.

Iran had previously warned an attack would force it to close the strait. Trump attacked anyway as he didn’t believe Iran would dare to carry out its threat. However, he underestimated Tehran’s resolve and is now desperately trying to reopen the strait but with no success.

Turning the tables

The US has, over the decades, weaponised its control over the global financial system and the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency by imposing sanctions on numerous countries.

In an act of poetic justice, Tehran has turned the tables on the US by weaponising its control over the world’s most vital energy chokepoint.

This perhaps is the biggest irony of all – the US, by attacking the Islamic republic, has enabled Iran to take a leaf from its sanctions playbook to impose energy sanctions on the rest of world.

Not only that, Iran has effectively become an “oil hegemon” with control over 20% of the world’s oil, according to US national security expert and former adviser to the White House Robert Pape.

“Now you have got the dreaded oil hegemon in Iran that we (the US) has sought to prevent in the Middle East since the 1970s,” he said recently.

Pape, along with various military experts, say the current situation in the gulf gives Iran all the advantages.

The fact that the US – reputed to have the world’s most powerful navy – has so far been unwilling or unable use its navy to unblock the strait signals that Tehran is holding more cards than Trump.

The US president suffered a humiliation when his call to Nato allies and friendly nations to help break Iran’s blockade fell on deaf ears. Not a single country signed up – a tacit acknowledgement that Iran is capable of sinking any warship that dares to challenge its control over the Strait of Hormuz.

Germany’s defence minister Boris Pistorius made it crystal clear when he said: “This is not our war, we did not start it”. An enraged Trump lashed out, branding his Nato allies as “cowards” and a “paper tiger”, conveniently forgetting that the US is the defacto leader of Nato.

Inspiration from Sun Tzu?

For Iran, the war it is fighting is existential – its very survival as an independent, sovereign state is at stake.

For a nation that is the successor to the great Persian empire that was the superpower of its time, losing a war that would make it a vassal of the US is unthinkable. Iran has to win even if it means having to wage economic warfare on a global scale.

The Iranians are no fools, and I would wager they are more strategic and capable than their counterparts at the White House. They have been preparing for this war for over 20 years, after seeing Iraq invaded by the US in 2003.

Iran knows it cannot confront the US directly, so it has adopted a strategy of asymmetric warfare, where the weaker side uses unconventional, often non-traditional tactics to exploit the stronger adversary’s vulnerabilities.

Iran’s decision to create a highly capable rocket force – which is now wreaking havoc on Israel and US bases in the region – rather than building up its air and naval forces is a good example.

Iran may possibly have taken inspiration from Sun Tzu’s Art of War, which advocates “subduing the enemy without fighting”. Its strategy of imposing an effective blockade on the Strait of Hormuz without even engaging the US Navy is a classic Sun Tzu move.

By disrupting the transit of tankers through the strait, Tehran is striking the US and Trump where it hurts – the pockets of consumers and businesses not only in the US but around the world. As prices begin soaring at the petrol pumps and supermarkets, Trump and his Republican Party are facing a potential debacle at the US mid-term elections on Nov 3, a mere seven months away.

If the Republicans get a trouncing and lose their majorities in the House of Representatives and Senate, the Democrats may move to impeach Trump. That would destroy his presidency and legacy.

If that were to happen, Tehran will have the last laugh. - FMT

The views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily reflect those of MMKtT.