Never mind that this question may be moot by the time the 16th general election trundles in sooner or later, it is still worth pondering the options we have and the possible permutations that it may throw up - we may be better informed voters at least.
The Johor polls are indicative. Nominations were made on June 27, and elections will be on July 11; projections are being bandied about.
But one thing stands out like a sore thumb - PAS and Umno are working together like they have not in a very long time.
This is exemplified by PAS-led coalition Perikatan Nasional’s decision not to contest in 23 state seats (out of 56), widely described as a major boon for BN. PAS is contesting a mere 11 seats under PN, which is contesting 33 in all.
A third party is already strongly allied with PAS, and also a PN member, Parti Wawasan Negara, led by Hamzah Zainudin.
He exited with 19 MPs from Muhyiddin Yassin’s Bersatu - leaving the latter with just six MPs, a dispute with PAS, and probably on its way out.
Malaysiakini reported: “Of those 23 seats (not contested by PAS), 13 are held by BN, nine by Pakatan Harapan, and one by Muda. PAS, which currently controls PN, has confirmed previously that it had been in talks with Umno to form an electoral pact to avoid multi-cornered fights in the state election.”
PAS deputy president Tuan Ibrahim Tuan Man has also instructed party members to vote for BN where PN is not contesting, which will be those 23 seats.
It will defer a decision on whether it will support Bersatu in the state polls. PAS has been at loggerheads with Bersatu and has stated that it will not work with them.
A forerunner
This electoral pact with Umno is very significant. It is likely a forerunner to similar arrangements for the remaining general and state elections, with PAS making way for Umno in states where it is weak and Umno returning the favour.
PAS is also likely to make adjustments for Wawasan Negara, whose leader Hamzah has sworn allegiance and expressed gratitude to the redoubtable PAS president Abdul Hadi Awang - the one who might decide the next prime minister - with Hamzah a possible candidate.
In the Malay heartland states of Perlis, Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu, PAS will lead the charge. In Selangor, it might be a mix of Umno/PAS, while in the other states Umno will be dominant.
Thus, Malay support across Peninsular Malaysia will be apportioned to the two - Bersatu is a non-entity; PKR is fading away.
It is quite a sobering and frightening wake-up call for Harapan, especially PKR. However, it may be too late for them as they continue to slumber while their opponents are toiling through the night to solidify their positions.
They seem quite oblivious to the twin threats posed by PAS/Umno on one combined flank and the newly emergent, dynamic and hard-working Parti Bersama Malaysia.
The Bersama factor
Bersama is led by ex-MPs and former PKR top guns, the tireless duo of Rafizi Ramli and Nik Nazmi Nik Ahmad.
While the duo has travelled up and down the country to campaign, and put up a credible list to contest 15 state seats in Johor, Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim is rather lacklustre in contrast, preferring to spend valuable campaign time on overseas trips, this time to Russia.
While Anwar’s PKR has previously relied on non-Malay support to get many candidates through, this seems to have evaporated with Bersama likely to take a lot away from PKR.
DAP’s less-than-promising stance has resulted in many calling it names - unfairly perhaps - but their inability to push back against non-Malay-unfriendly moves not just by Umno but PKR itself has lost it significant support already.
The unfriendly moves include regulations and poor decisions over places of worship, diminished opportunities for deserving non-Malays, and the constant playing of the race and religion card, especially by Umno Youth.
The moon and keris rise
In contrast, Bersama’s promise to work for all races and all downtrodden, with what amounts to a mini-manifesto on its website, continues to attract attention and seems to resonate well with younger voters not shackled by the baggage of the past.
It has a promising chance of taking seats, especially from PKR and poses a threat to DAP as well. It could cost DAP marginal seats if the youth decide to make a change in call.
With the PAS moon on the ascendant and the Umno keris rising in a coordinated attack, not wasting efforts by fighting each other, Malay support for PKR is likely to be all but extinguished this round.
With Bersama a threat to urban Harapan dominance and an Umno/PAS pact in the rural areas and other strongly Malay areas, Harapan and especially PKR may suffer a pincer attack which will put it out of commission at GE 16.
DAP may not get the 40 MP seats it has now. If it has any pride, it will languish in opposition, eschewing a place in the new coalition.
With the outlook for PKR and Amanah bleak, it’s hard to see how Anwar’s Madani government, sans Umno, can rule again.
It is a plaintive lesson in the importance of choosing friends carefully and keeping them at arm’s length if they are less than trustworthy.
One forgets at their own peril that Umno is a master of being in government, even if they do not have the voting power.
To answer the heading for this article, it does not matter anymore. Almost certainly Anwar will not be given the chance to form the next government - that privilege is likely to move to PN/BN, the coalition most likely to get the most number of seats.
Once they get the privilege, it’s a done deal with some horse-trading with the states across the South China Sea, Sabah and Sarawak, who are likely to go with the majority decision in the peninsula.
I don’t think Islamic law will be introduced for all - apart from the impact on foreign direct investment and sentiment, some 40 percent of the population is non-Muslim.
It is a move which won’t be supported by Sabah and Sarawak. They won’t get a two-thirds majority in the Dewan Rakyat for the laws to be passed.
Sadly, neither Malays nor non-Malays, east or west - all Malaysians in other words - will benefit because the old guard with their deadwood, decrepit politicians and patronage practices will still be in power. Nothing will change for now.
For change, we may have to support somebody else who is in it for the long term. Yes, Bersama, hopefully they get enough support to stay and fight for another day. No, I am not making any predictions - let whatever comes be a surprise. - Mkini
P GUNASEGARAM remains amazed at the poor quality of our political leadership.
The views expressed here are those of the author/contributor and do not necessarily represent the views of MMKtT.
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.