‘Enemy of my enemy is my friend’ not enough for lasting pacts

 Analyst Asrul Sani says pre-election pacts will mean less compared with post-election alliances in GE16, with dealmaking to be the buttress of such cooperation.

Parties looking to form pacts for GE16 must forge sustainable, longer-term deals such as confidence and supply agreements, given the likelihood of yet another hung Parliament, said Asrul Sani of The Asia Group.

PETALING JAYA:

The increasingly fragmented political landscape in Malaysia has led to a more dynamic and fluid environment, where allies turn into foes, and even return to being allies once again to challenge a common rival.

However, political analyst Asrul Sani of The Asia Group said political alliances built on taking on a particular bogeyman will not be stable enough to last long, including the latest Barisan Nasional-Perikatan Nasional pact.

Asrul told FMT the opposition against Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim and Pakatan Harapan, particularly DAP, was likely to remain a common theme ahead of the next general election (GE16).

“Umno, PAS and other parties outside the government still differ over leadership, ideology, seat allocations and their respective roles within any future government.

“Those tensions will re-emerge once the common objective of defeating Anwar has been achieved,” he said.

He said a sustainable, longer-term alliance will require a more practical agreement, especially given the likelihood that GE16 could result in a hung Parliament yet again.

Such deals, including confidence and supply agreements (CSAs), must entail clearly-defined commitments in exchange for the support of parties, much like the reform pact signed by PH and the Ismail Sabri Yaakob government in 2021.

Asrul said election pacts will matter less compared with post-election alliances, with dealmaking to be the buttress of such cooperation.

In this context, CSAs could become increasingly relevant to ensure stability, and Sarawak stands to gain the most here, he said.

“Even if Umno and PAS win a majority of Malay-majority constituencies, they may still fall short of the 112 seats required to form a government.

“They would, therefore, need to offer Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS) and other partners an agreed prime ministerial candidate, a minimum policy programme, and clear commitments to Sarawak’s priorities.

“GPS could support the ruling coalition and secure commitments on development funding, greater autonomy, the implementation of the Malaysia Agreement 1963 and control over state resources, while maintaining political distance from West Malaysian parties,” he said.

Messy array of allies and/or foes

PH, BN, GPS and Gabungan Rakyat Sabah are key partners in Anwar’s federal government, joining hands after the 2022 general election ended with no clear winner.

However, BN contested in the Negeri Sembilan polls with the PAS-led opposition coalition PN, as they formed the new state government with a two-thirds majority at 25 seats.

Umno and PAS previously had their Muafakat Nasional pact, which ended after the Islamic party formed PN with Bersatu in 2020.

Bersatu now appears to be on its way out of PN after falling out with PAS and opposition leader Hamzah Zainudin, whose latest outfit is Wawasan following his sacking from Bersatu in February.

Bersatu used to be a PH component but left in February 2020, contributing to the fall of then PH-led government. The party is led by former Umno deputy president Muhyiddin Yassin.

On the other hand, PAS used to be allies with PH components PKR and DAP under the Pakatan Rakyat coalition, from 2008 to 2015.

BN-PN’s success in the Negeri Sembilan polls has already led to calls for this alliance to continue in GE16, while BN has also been urged by certain quarters within PH to withdraw from government posts.

Umno-PAS pact simple arithmetics

Political scientist Wong Chin Huat of Sunway University sees the renewed Umno-PAS pact as “simple arithmetics”. He said Malaysia’s political arena had become a three-horse competition among BN, PN and PH, but PH has seen diminishing support recently.

“If one side is collapsing, then there is strong incentive for the other two to team up to divide up the former’s territory,” he said, adding that a clear PH collapse would drive BN-PN to maintain their pact in other state elections and GE16.

However, Wong believed Umno and PAS do not trust each other despite their oft-repeated Malay-Muslim unity rhetoric, and would soon clash with each other if they win big in future elections, in hopes of dominating the Malay vote. - FMT