Is Umno facing a dilemma?

 Experiences of cooperating with PAS are a lesson that clashes over the 'big brother' status in Malay politics are virtually unavoidable.

From Moaz Nair

PAS holds significant potential to dominate the Malay political landscape and “overshadow” Umno through the dynamics of their recent political cooperation.

Relations between the two parties seem to have warmed up again following their pact in the Negeri Sembilan election and PAS’s tactical move to direct its supporters to back Barisan Nasional (BN) candidates in specific areas during the Johor election.

However, Umno faces the risk of succumbing to or being dominated by PAS’s influence.

PAS is currently the largest Malay party in terms of parliamentary seats, and controls the administration of four states.

If a formula for cooperation is established for the 16th general election (GE16), Umno’s traditional vote base risks erosion, given PAS’s more dominant position.

If Umno enters into a formal partnership with PAS, it risks being relegated to the role of a “junior partner”. PAS is highly unlikely to relinquish the Malay-majority seats it has already won, which would force Umno to contest less secure constituencies.

PAS’s support for BN in areas outside its strongholds is viewed by analysts as a double-edged tactic. While the move yields a short-term victory for Umno, it simultaneously fosters a dependency of Umno’s machinery on PAS.

Nevertheless, PAS cannot yet exert total control over Umno as the latter remains a key component of the unity government alongside Pakatan Harapan (PH).

In fact, PH component parties like DAP recently affirmed their acceptance of cooperation with Umno for the sake of national administrative stability.

Key Umno leaders, including party president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, have emphasised that any engagement with PAS constitutes collaboration for the interests of the Malay community and stability, rather than a merger or surrender of party authority.

Many Umno leaders and grassroots members are aware of the dangers of becoming subservient to PAS.

Past experiences of cooperating with PAS – such as through the Muafakat Nasional alliance – serve as a lesson that clashes over the “big brother” status in Malay politics are virtually unavoidable.

In conclusion, PAS will not be able to take over Umno’s internal management for the time being. However, if Umno miscalculates its strategy during negotiations for a GE16 pact, it risks losing its identity and dominant status to PAS.

Is Umno currently facing a dilemma?

Yes, Umno is facing a critical political dilemma – a “Catch-22” situation centred on the party’s political survival, involving a choice between two paths.

If Umno chooses to resume cooperation with PAS for the sake of “Muslim unity”, it risks being subsumed by PAS, which is now significantly stronger in terms of parliamentary seat numbers.

Umno would appear weak and be forced to yield to PAS’s terms regarding seat allocations.

If Umno remains with PH over the long term, it may struggle to win back staunch Malay voters who remain sceptical of the partnership, particularly the Umno-DAP relationship.

This could cause Malay votes to continue shifting towards Perikatan Nasional.

Umno is currently at a crossroads: remaining with PH might secure its position in the current government, but returning to PAS could threaten its identity as the “big brother” of Malay politics in the future. - FMT

Moaz Nair is an FMT reader.

The views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily reflect those of MMKtT.