SEREMBAN: The outcome of the Negri Sembilan election exposed deeper challenges for Pakatan Harapan, particularly its ability to retain and expand Malay support.
Results show Barisan Nasional emerging as the biggest winner with 18 seats, followed by PH with 11 and Perikatan Nasional with seven.
Umno secured 16 seats for BN, while MCA won two.
Within PH, DAP scored nine victories, followed by PKR with two seats.
PN's seven seats were secured by Pas (four) and Parti Wawasan Negara (three).
Bersatu failed to win any seats.
Universiti Teknologi Malaysia Faculty of Social Sciences and Humanities associate professor Dr Mazlan Ali said the outcome should serve as a warning for PH, as voters appeared to be influenced by broader political narratives beyond state government performance.
He said the defeat of former menteri besar Datuk Seri Aminuddin Harun in Linggi showed that even a government with a strong record was not immune to wider political shifts.
"The Malay-Islam narrative appeared to play a significant role in shaping their choices," he told the New Straits Times.
"BN and PN combined their Malay support.
"Apart from Pas' traditional supporters, Pas also gained support from BN voters."
Universiti Malaya's Department of Political Science, Public Administration and Development Studies senior lecturer Dr Mohammad Tawfik Yaakub said the result could be viewed as a referendum on the state government and the PH's federal leadership.
He said the defeats of Aminuddin and DAP secretary-general Anthony Loke indicated that national issues, perceptions towards the federal government and confidence in PH's leadership had influenced voters.
"However, this was not a total rejection of PH, as candidate appeal, constituency dynamics and local strategies remained important factors."
Tawfik said the BN-PN pact created a more organised challenge against PH.
"The strength of Umno's machinery, Pas' influence, local candidates and rural voter mobilisation also played a significant role."
For PH, the result exposed a gap between DAP's ability to retain support and PKR and Amanah's struggle to attract Malay voters.
DAP retained nine seats — Bahau, Nilai, Lobak, Temiang, Bukit Kepayang, Rahang, Mambau, Seremban Jaya and Lukut.
However, several of these constituencies continue to reflect DAP's reliance on mixed and non-Malay support bases.
Mambau has a Chinese voter share of 45.4 per cent, Bahau has 45.6 per cent and Bukit Kepayang has 41.9 per cent.
Seremban Jaya and Rahang also have significant Chinese voter presence at 37.8 per cent and 38.1 per cent, respectively.
Tawfik said PH remained dependent on urban and non-Malay support but lacked Malay support.
He said DAP's defeat in Chennah, a mixed constituency, was significant as it suggested the party's cross-community appeal was under pressure.
Loke lost Chennah to MCA candidate Siow Kong Choon by 688 votes, while PH also narrowly lost Repah to BN by 444 votes.
The setbacks came after DAP suffered electoral losses in Sabah and Johor.
Tawfik said the defeat placed pressure on Loke, who is not only DAP secretary-general but also the party's Negri Sembilan chairman.
He said while the loss did not mean Loke must relinquish his national position, stepping aside as state chairman would be a gesture of accountability.
The DAP National Congress on Aug 16 is expected to become an important post-election review platform to discuss grassroots rebuilding and electoral strategy.
International Islamic University Malaysia political scientist Associate Professor Dr Syaza Shukri said the BN-PN cooperation was an effective strategy to consolidate Malay support previously divided between the two blocs.
"In the 2023 state election, many Malay-majority seats were closely contested between BN and PN, showing that Malay support was strong but fragmented. This time, cooperation helped consolidate those votes and created a stronger narrative."
However, she said the result did not mean PH had completely lost its Malay supporters.
"PH previously contested with support from other Malay-based parties, whether BN in 2023 or Bersatu in 2018.
"The core Malay supporters of PH may remain, but the coalition has lost some of the additional Malay votes it gained through those partnerships."
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