Wong Chin Huat of Sunway University and Azmil Tayeb of Universiti Sains Malaysia say that as a team, Barisan Nasional and Perikatan Nasional can draw a substantial proportion of Malay votes from Pakatan Harapan.
This is the view shared by two political scientists, Wong Chin Huat and Azmil Taib, who also advised the coalition to focus on a “people-centric” agenda to fend off the Barisan Nasional-Perikatan Nasional (BN-PN) onslaught.
Wong, who is with Sunway University, said PH should brace itself for some losses, especially in Malay-majority constituencies.
He cited Bayan Lepas and Batu Maung as seats that could fall to the BN-PN alliance. Malay voters make up 63.6% of the electorate in Bayan Lepas and 53.1% in Batu Maung.
Azrul Mahathir Aziz of Amanah is the incumbent assemblyman for Bayan Lepas, while PKR’s Mohamad Abdul Hamid holds the Batu Maung seat.
If PH loses only these two seats, it will still hold 25 of the 40 seats in the state assembly — a comfortable majority, though short of the two-thirds threshold.
But, as Wong pointed out, to prevent the loss of more seats it would mean relying on non-Malay voters, especially the Chinese, to turn out in droves and vote in PH’s favour.
“PH may lose more seats if its core supporters abstain from voting or switch to BN-PN, as they did in Johor,” Wong told FMT.
Last Sunday, Penang chief minister Chow Kon Yeow warned that cooperation between BN and PN could pose a threat to the DAP in the state.
The DAP, the lynchpin of the PH coalition in Penang, now holds 19 seats in the state assembly. PKR has seven seats and Amanah one, giving the coalition a two-thirds majority.
Across the aisle, PAS holds seven seats and Bersatu four.
The remaining two assemblymen are from BN. For now, they are cooperating with PH under the unity government arrangement.
Wong believes the BN-PN narrative of Malay unity would have considerable sway among Penang’s Malay voters, who are generally more responsive to ethno-religious mobilisation.
Of Penang’s 40 state seats, 15 are Malay-majority.
Economic progress not enough
Azmil, a lecturer at Universiti Sains Malaysia, said PH could no longer rely solely on its economic achievements to win over voters in Penang.
He said campaigning on economic progress would be especially ineffective if that progress had been uneven.
He pointed out that unchecked development in some areas and little progress in others had widened the gap between the haves and the have-nots.
Azmil said the outcome of the Negeri Sembilan election showed that the previous government’s economic accomplishments had little bearing on the Malay vote. PH lost control of the state to the BN-PN alliance in the Aug 1 election.
“PH must now focus on consolidating and energising its support base to maximise turnout come election time. We saw many disillusioned PH supporters abstain from voting, especially among non-Malays,” he said.
Wong said the assumption that voters are primarily concerned about the economy is only partly true.
“There is no guarantee that managing the economy well will ensure a government’s re-election,” he said.
“Some voters have long made up their minds to reject PH and DAP, no matter how well the state government manages the economy.”
Nonetheless, Wong and Azmil believe the battle is not lost.
They said Penang PH should focus on equality, social justice, public well-being, affordability and other bread-and-butter issues to avoid alienating its voter base and fence-sitters.
At the same time, Wong said, PH must also address the culture war that the BN-PN alliance is likely to exploit to unite Malay voters.
“Such issues must be handled with extreme care so that the state government is not seen as doing nothing,” he added. - FMT
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