Real test for BN-PN lies in PAS states, says analyst

 Mazlan Ali says the coalitions' strong showing in the Negeri Sembilan polls is no guarantee that their cooperation will continue smoothly.

The Negeri Sembilan election saw the BN-PN alliance win 18 and seven seats respectively, giving the coalition a two-thirds majority to form the state government.

PETALING JAYA:

An analyst has warned that Barisan Nasional (BN) and Perikatan Nasional (PN) should not become overly comfortable with their landslide victory in the Negeri Sembilan election last Saturday, saying the real test of the alliance will come in the states led by PAS.

Mazlan Ali of Universiti Teknologi Malaysia said the coalitions’ strong showing in the election was no guarantee that their cooperation would continue smoothly, noting that cracks had already emerged during the campaign period.

He referred to the public rebuke by BN leaders of Kedah menteri besar Sanusi Nor, as well as reactions from BN component parties such as MIC over the latter’s remarks.

According to Mazlan, the true test of the BN-PN partnership will be in Kelantan, Terengganu, Kedah and Perlis, which are widely regarded as PAS strongholds.

Mazlan Ali.

BN holds only two seats in the Kelantan state assembly and has no representation in the other three states.

“In Johor, Negeri Sembilan and Melaka, compromises are easier because these are not PAS strongholds.

“But will PAS be willing to share seats with BN in its stronghold states, and will BN be satisfied with the number of seats allocated to it?” Mazlan told FMT.

He said seat allocations would be a crucial issue, adding that PN should not take its relationship with BN for granted.

“Neither side can assume that this understanding will definitely continue until the 16th general election.”

The Negeri Sembilan election saw the BN-PN alliance win 18 and seven seats respectively, giving the coalitions a two-thirds majority to form the state government.

BN chairman Ahmad Zahid Hamidi had hinted that the cooperation could continue for the Melaka state election, which must be held by the end of the year.

Syahruddin Awang Ahmad.

Syahruddin Awang Ahmad of Universiti Malaysia Sabah said PN should be prepared for political shifts if BN changes course following negotiations at the federal level.

BN is part of the unity government led by Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, who is also chairman of Pakatan Harapan.

“If BN changes its mind following negotiations between the top leaderships (Anwar and Zahid), it is possible that the kind of cooperation seen in Negeri Sembilan will not continue in the next state election or the 16th general election,” he said.

Meanwhile, Ahmad Zaharuddin Sani Ahmad Sabri said the Negeri Sembilan results showed that PN had matured as a political coalition and was no longer relying solely on the strength of one party.

Ahmad Zaharuddin Sani Ahmad Sabri.

The Global Asia Consulting analyst said the victory could boost supporters’ confidence and trigger a bandwagon effect, where success in one state shapes the perception that even bigger victories will follow.

However, he cautioned that electoral momentum would not necessarily last, saying it could either build or fade depending on political developments.

“Malaysia’s political history shows that electoral momentum rarely remains static – it either grows or dissipates.

“That is why every major victory carries implications that extend beyond state borders,” he said. - FMT