Subang still a safe seat for PH despite Wong Chen’s Bersama move, say analysts

 They say many urban areas, with educated T20 and M40 voters, will find it difficult to embrace a new party like Bersama.

Wong Chen, who resigned as Subang MP on Monday, was with PKR for 17 years before leaving to join Bersama this week.

PETALING JAYA:

Political analysts have played down Bersama’s odds of wresting the Subang parliamentary seat from Pakatan Harapan (PH), saying it remains a safe seat for the coalition despite the move by its former MP Wong Chen.

Wong, who resigned as Subang MP on Monday, was with PKR for 17 years before leaving to join Bersama this week.

He entered Parliament as the Kelana Jaya MP in 2013 and retained the seat after it was renamed Subang in 2018 and again in 2022. He defended the Subang seat in 2022 with a whopping 115,074-vote majority in a three-cornered contest against Gerakan and MCA.

Lau Zhe Wei.

Lau Zhe Wei of International Islamic University Malaysia said Subang could remain under PH as long as the Chinese community consolidated its support for the coalition.

Subang is a mixed seat with a Chinese majority. The community comprises 54% of the electorate, followed by Malays (26.4%), Indians (16.8%) and others (1.6%).

“PKR can win the seat comfortably as long as the Chinese continue to support PH… even if Wong Chen – I assume – manages to split some votes here and there,” Lau said.

“PH can win the seat, but it won’t be as comfortably as in high Chinese-majority seats such as those held by DAP.”

Mazlan Ali.

Meanwhile, Mazlan Ali of Universiti Teknologi Malaysia said PH had won urban seats in Selangor such as Subang, Petaling Jaya and Damansara by majorities of tens of thousands, posing a major obstacle for Bersama.

He, too, said that Wong’s electoral strength in Subang might not carry over to Bersama as his previous victories came under the PH banner.

“PH won more than a 100,000-vote majority in Damansara. A lot of these urban areas, with educated T20 and M40 voters, will find it difficult to embrace a new party like Bersama.

“I think it will be quite difficult for Wong to retain the Subang seat even though he may be well known in the area,” he said.

Lau said Wong’s service record on its own would not be enough for him to win Subang for Bersama unless he had built a massive personal profile. He gave the example of former Rembau MP and health minister Khairy Jamaluddin, who was fielded in Sungai Buloh in GE15.

Khairy and PKR’s R Ramanan were among seven candidates contesting the Sungai Buloh seat in GE15, which Ramanan won with a 2,693-vote majority over Khairy.

Azmi Hassan.

Analyst Azmi Hassan of Akademi Nusantara said Bersama would have a shot at wresting the seat from PH if it fielded Wong as its candidate, describing him as a well-known politician in both Subang and Kelana Jaya.

“We can say that Wong Chen and Subang are politically synonymous in this case.

“So I think Bersama has a good chance in the next general election of winning the Subang parliamentary seat,” he said. - FMT