Awang Azman Pawi says an electoral understanding among the three local parties can make them ‘very formidable, but not automatically dominant’.
However, he adds, this does not necessarily guarantee victory in the polls.
As Awang Azman Pawi of Universiti Malaya sees it, an electoral understanding among the three parties could make them “very formidable, but not automatically dominant”.
“Potentially, it is a very good idea for all three parties, given that the biggest problem faced by local parties in Sabah has often been fragmentation rather than a lack of support,” he told FMT.
On Sunday, Warisan president Shafie Apdal revealed that his party, STAR and KDM were already in talks for a possible pact for GE16.
However, he added that no deal had been struck yet, but Sabah’s rights and interests would be the basis of any agreement reached.
Warisan did not do well in GE15 in 2022, winning only eight of the 17 parliamentary seats it contested. But it won 25 seats in the Sabah state election last November, just four fewer than GRS. STAR won two, while KDM won only one seat.
GRS eventually cobbled together a simple majority with the support of Pakatan Harapan (PH), Barisan Nasional (BN), the United Progressive Kinabalu Organisation (Upko) and an independent, enabling it to form a government.
Awang Azman pointed out that collectively, Warisan, STAR and KDM already have 28 seats, just one fewer than GRS.
But more significant is the fact that Warisan alone garnered 25.6% of the popular vote, ahead of GRS’s 25.4%. “(This may seem marginal but) combined with STAR’s 6.5% and KDM’s 4.8%, they already have 36.9% of the votes,” he said.
Nonetheless, he conceded that the votes might not necessarily be transferable as a bloc among the three parties, given that they had fielded candidates against each other in many constituencies previously.
Geographical and political interdependence
Awang Azman and another analyst, Lee Kuok Tiung of Universiti Malaysia Sabah, agree that Warisan, STAR and KDM could complement each other politically and geographically.
Both agree that Warisan is strong in urban and semi-urban areas, on the east coast and in Muslim-Bumiputera constituencies.
They said STAR’s wins in Tambunan and Bingkor, along with KDM’s victory in Paginatan, underscored their strong hold in the interior and in Kadazan Dusun Murut-majority areas.
But Awang Azman said the biggest benefit is not necessarily the ability, if any, of STAR and KDM to deliver a large number of additional votes to Warisan.
“It is (the fact) that they can prevent the ‘vote-Sabah first’ supporters from being divided among several candidates,” he added.
Partnering with STAR and KDM therefore helps Warisan address one of its weaknesses — its limited penetration into parts of the interior Kadazan Dusun-Murut electorate, where local personalities and grassroots networks remain particularly important.
Counter-narratives
But while a pact among the three may look good on paper, the reality can be quite different.
For instance, seat overlaps, especially across mixed and Kadazan Dusun Murut-majority constituencies, will be a contentious issue.
“(In these areas) STAR and KDM compete directly for the same voters,” Lee pointed out.
He also noted that the three parties have different political ambitions, while leadership tensions and competition for seats at the grassroots level could hinder coordination despite an agreement among their top leaders.
For Awang Azman, the risk lies in assuming that votes can automatically be transferred among the three parties.
He pointed out that the alliance would still need credible candidates. There must be early agreement on seat allocation and a common narrative centred on Sabah’s rights under MA63, the 40% revenue entitlement, better infrastructure and a bigger say in federal decision-making.
GRS could argue that it is the Sabah-based coalition in government and is thus in the best position to negotiate with Putrajaya.
On the other hand, Warisan-STAR-KDM could counter with the assertion that Sabah needs a stronger and more independent parliamentary bloc that is not constrained by relationships with federal parties.
“That message could resonate because the 2025 state polls themselves demonstrated the strength of Sabah-centric politics and dissatisfaction with traditional national-party arrangements,” Awang Azman said.
GRS best bet?
To improve its chances in a face-off with the Warisan-STAR-KDM alliance, GRS may have to make winning a priority rather than try to contest all seats.
Awang Azman said that while GRS should prepare itself to contest all 25 parliamentary seats, it should not shut the door to allies that may have a better hand in some marginal seats.
“In seats where GRS is strongest, it should field a candidate. But in constituencies where an ally has substantially stronger machinery, candidate recognition or an incumbent MP, negotiations may make more sense than starting another multi-cornered contest,” he added. - FMT
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