“Can Anwar afford to run the course while Zahid is plotting for snap polls?”

 

PRIME Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim holds a strong structural advantage that allows him to delay the 16th General Election until later in his term, and that is because he holds a large majority in Parliament to begin with.

In an analysis of the political situation in Malaysia, the Singapore Straits Times said Anwar also has key regional support, with the Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS) likely to back him in the event of a standoff from Barisan Nasional.

The analysis says Anwar can afford to lose up to 40 MPs in Parliament, but he can still maintain a working simple majority of 110.

Currently, Anwar’s government holds 150 seats in the 222-seat Parliament.

On regional support, it says GPS, with 23 seats, has strong incentives to remain aligned with the government as crucial energy and oil management agreements between PETRONAS and Sarawak near completion.

Meanwhile, delaying the election gives Anwar time to leverage major upcoming events, such as celebrating 70 years of Merdeka and hosting the 2027 SEA Games, while utilising the federal budget to roll out popular spending measures before his mandate expires.

And the ongoing corruption cases and investigations involving UMNO figures give Anwar tactical leverage over his coalition partners.

But the article asks the crucial question: Can Zahid Get Enough Support to Defeat Anwar in Parliament?

Barisan Nasional (BN) and its leader Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi face significant hurdles to defeat Anwar via a budget vote.

BN controls only 30 seats. Even if BN combines forces with the opposition Perikatan Nasional (PN), they fall short of a majority on their own and would require extensive defections from other government-aligned blocs to be able to confront Anwar in the August house.

Convincing other unity government partners – such as Sabah and Sarawak blocs – to defect and risk national instability is also unlikely while key regional demands are actively being met by Anwar’s administration.

Conversely, if rival parties refuse to join the move, BN risks backfiring by attempting to force an early dissolution by defeating the Budget (to be tabled in October).

This risks leaving Zahid unable to guarantee the necessary votes to trigger a vote of no confidence or to force snap elections. —  Focus Malaysia