Formal Umno-PAS pact more viable with Bersatu out, says analyst

 Mazlan Ali says a formal agreement binding the interests of both parties would provide greater stability than merely relying on mutual understanding.

Umno and PAS had an informal electoral understanding for the recent Johor and Negeri Sembilan elections. (Bernama pic)

PETALING JAYA:

A formal tie-up between Umno and PAS stands a better chance of staying the course now that Bersatu is out of the picture, says an analyst, who backed a call for the two parties to make their partnership official.

Mazlan Ali.

Universiti Teknologi Malaysia analyst Mazlan Ali told FMT a formal agreement binding the interests of both parties would provide greater stability than a mere mutual understanding.

He said PAS and Umno had previously worked together in the Muafakat Nasional alliance, but the pact eventually failed because Umno was unhappy over the PAS relationship with Bersatu.

However, he said the political landscape had since changed, with PAS severing ties with Bersatu in June although the two parties remain partners in Perikatan Nasional.

Mazlan said the informal alliance between the two parties in the Johor and Negeri Sembilan state elections was no guarantee that it would last until the next general election. “Only a formal agreement will allow for a lasting political relationship between the two parties,” he said.

Any new agreement must clearly spell out matters related to seat distribution, loyalty between the parties and their common positions on political issues, he said.

However, the more contentious issue would be determining who would lead the government should the coalition win the next general election. “At the moment, I am not sure which party would be willing to give up the prime minister’s post to its partner,” he said.

He added significant differences and a lack of trust remained between the two parties despite the apparent momentum for renewed cooperation.

“I think the idea of MN, although easy to say, is not easy to realise. There are still many differences between the two parties (PAS and Umno), and the level of trust between them remains low,” he said.

Syaza Shukri.

International Islamic University Malaysia’s Syaza Shukri said a formal charter could give political weight to the current informal cooperation by turning it into specific commitments.

She said it could reassure party members that the cooperation had the backing of both leaderships, give state leaders a framework for negotiations and signal to voters that PAS and Umno intended to avoid three-cornered contests.

However, its significance would depend on its contents. A declaration centred only on Malay-Muslim unity, without binding arrangements, would remain largely symbolic, she said.

Syaza said a new agreement would only differ from MN if the two parties addressed the political circumstances and ambiguities that contributed to the previous pact’s collapse.

“Both parties must agree on whether their partnership is exclusive, how it relates to BN, PN and Pakatan Harapan, and which party has priority in contested constituencies. Otherwise, it would reproduce the ambiguity in MN under a new name,” she said.

She said informal cooperation offered flexibility but was vulnerable to contradictory statements and sabotage by party leaders, while a formal agreement could provide an authorised structure. However, informal negotiations might still be more realistic at this stage.

Any new charter, she said, should define the status of existing political partners, set transparent principles for seat allocation, establish a joint decision-making and dispute-resolution mechanism, and provide rules on party discipline and public communication.

It should also clarify post-election arrangements, including whether either party could negotiate with a third coalition and how government positions would be allocated. - FMT