Johor: How will they vote?

The wind of change is blowing very strongly in Johor. It would not be a surprise if election results in Johor upset BN, as the coalition had always thought that Johor was a 'safe deposit' state.

It is true that in 2008, Johor voters generally did not swing much to PR, not as much when compared to Selangor, Perak, Penang and Kedah.

But this coming GE13 is quite different for Johor. The situations at the ground level, at the moment, are changing very rapidly. PR rallies are not only well attended but they clearly demonstrate a partisan crowd, a clear support towards PR, a phenomenon that was not seen in 2008 or previous GEs. Perhaps, Johoreans love to take the lead in blowing the wind of change in this coming GE.

The moods and sentiments of the crowd in Johor, whether in Gelang Patah or Skudai, Batu Pahat or far away Pengerang, are very much consistent with the PR rally speakers. They are all shouting for ‘Ubah’ or ‘Ini Kalilah’.

Often, the spirited and eager crowd dictate the flow of the speech from the speakers, even jumping the gun, at times. Gone is their passive behaviour. The crowd in Johor are very vocal but firmly supportive and participative.

And they are not small in numbers either. The mixed crowd of Malays, Chinese and Indians seem very comfortable sitting or standing next to each other, listening to a mixed bag of PR politicians.

Obviously, former prime minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad, and former Johor MBs Muhyiddin Yassin and Abdul Ghani Othman have not been to any of these rallies. Otherwise, they would not have uttered those words and statements about racial frictions or possible riots between Chinese and Malays.

Big crowds

Far from what these three politicians are posturing, crowd behaviour at these rallies is clear indicator of the cooperation, tolerance and understanding of the three main races in Malaysia today. They are thoroughly exemplary and the opposite of what BN politicians have painted.

Perhaps, Johor voters represent a group of mature, calculated and far-sighted people. They thoroughly understand the issues surrounding this GE, which are been harped on again and again by the PR candidates.

Corruption, excessiveness, leakages in public spending, failure of our education policy, high living costs, and issues related to national security and public safety are but some of the topics being highlighted.

The Johor voters can easily relate to these issues. After 56 years of Umno/BN monotonous rule, the Johor voters seem ready to make a change.

On top of that, the manifesto of the PR coalition seems to make a lot of sense and easily understood by them, thus the immediate display of support. Judging from those that make up the crowd at these rallies, it is very clear that there are a lot of youngsters, possibly first time voters. Some of my discussions held with this group clearly show that a majority of them would vote for PR. These new, young and internet savvy voters have already made up their mind and they are not shy to say it out loud.

Analysis of new voters

This is part of the basis of the methodology adopted for the analyses and predictions made here. Almost all seats in Johor have new voters. The additional voters range is from 8 per cent at the smallest seat to as much as 36 per cent for the biggest.

Based on the voting pattern established in 2008, this analysis assumed that for this coming GE, the old voters remain loyal to their respective choice. Therefore, similar number of votes are retain for the basic analysis purposes.

However, based on a number of site visits, discussions and observations made during the various rallies in Johor so far, a small swing of between 5 to 10 per cent is attached to a number of seats where certain high profile candidates from PR are contesting.

Their well-known personalities are considered positively as they attract certain groups of voters. This, however, is not a general rule that is applied throughout the analyses, as some seats do not have this particular feature and voters simply vote on the basis of contesting party instead of personality.

As an illustration on the approach and methodology adopted here, the seat of Gelang Patah is used and provided with all the details. There were a total of 78,676 voters in Gelang Patah in 2008.

The results of 2008 showed that BN won this seat by a majority of 8,851. But for this coming GE, there are 28,188 new voters giving a new total of 106,864 voters in this parliamentary constituency.

If it is assumed that the voters turn out for the new voters group is on the slightly higher side of the national average, which is about 75 per cent, then the additional number that would vote on 5th May would be about 22,550. Given that majority of the new voters would vote for PR, some estimates say about 70 per cent, while others claimed to be much higher (almost 80%), a ratio of new voters for each seat was calculated. However, a lower figure of 70% is adopted in here.

Therefore, out of the 22,550 new voters that would turn up to vote in Gelang Patah, the share for PR and BN (at 70:30 ratios) would be 16,912 and 6,765 respectively. This is indeed quite generous to PR but very consistent with the participating crowd commonly found at PR rallies almost throughout Johor.

Given that we assumed the 2008 voting pattern has not changed except in this particular case, a maximum 10% swing towards PR is allowed for in the calculation. Again, this assumption is due to the high profile of PR’s candidate, the response of the voters attending the rallies and on spot surveys and discussions.

In the case of Gelang Patah, BN would therefore obtain 30,370 (derived from 33,630 in 2008 minus 3,360, which represents 10% swing to PR), but plus 6,765 new voters, giving a grand total of 37,135 votes.

For PR, they are expected to obtain 28,139 (derived from 24,779 votes in 2008 plus a 10% swing votes of 3,360). Together with the new voters of 16,912, PR final tally would be about 45,000 votes. This means that for the seat of Gelang Patah, Sdr. Lim Kit Siang, will win with a majority of about 7,900 votes. This is the calculated prediction.

Predictions

The sample shown above formed the basis of the main methodology used for the calculations which resulted in the predictions below. It can be seen that the game changer in this coming GE is primarily the new voters and to some extent, a swing to PR due to their candidates’ high profile in specific constituents.

A good manifesto obviously a great help to draw the voters to their side. But most of all, it’s the failure on the part of the present government to deal with and solved the issues of the day that make the voters swing towards PR.

Obviously, a party that have put up high profile candidates can target and win over the new voters more easily and would also stand a better chance of reversing the 2008 results. It becomes more pertinent and crucial especially if the number of new voters in the constituency exceeds the previous winning margin or the majority.

Based on the methods of calculations made, below are the predictions on the outcome of GE13 for the state of Johor, for both Parliamentary and state seats. The grey seats are those seats that are closely contested, where the winning margin are also expected to be very thin. They can go either way.

As at the moment, PR is predicted to win six Parliamentary seats outright and possibly a few more seats under the Grey Seats category which could swing either way.

As there are several more days left for campaigning, both sides could perhaps focus more on the grey seats so that a maximum number of votes especially from among the ‘fence sitters’ could be captured.

As for the state seats, PR is predicted to capture 18 seats outright while BN would retain about 25 seats while the remaining seats (23 altogether) are considered in the grey zone. Control for the state assembly seems fairly uncertain at the moment but the balance of power is tilting a little towards BN.

Obviously, a lot will also depend on the outcome in the coming days when the campaign will get more heated up and the ‘fence sitters’ decide which party to vote for on May 5, 2013

In the meantime the shouts of 'Ubah' and 'Ini Kalilah' continue to be heard loud and clear at the various rallies in Johor and other states. The wind of change for this coming GE seems to be blowing from the southern state towards the northerly and easterly directions.

-harakahdaily