Taiwan-China war could have serious fallout for region, says ex-diplomat

 Kishore Mahbubani says Southeast Asia should not assume that it will be unaffected by a war, as it could draw in the US and jeopardise the global economy.

Former Singaporean diplomat Kishore Mahbubani speaking at a fireside chat session held during the Penang Peace Dialogue in George Town, Penang.

GEORGE TOWN:

Former Singapore diplomat Kishore Mahbubani has warned that a potential armed conflict between China and Taiwan could pose a serious threat to Southeast Asia, cautioning the region against assuming it would remain unaffected.

Kishore, also a former president of the United Nations Security Council, warned that if a war occurred between the two countries, the chances of US involvement would be very high.

“And I think if we in Southeast Asia naively believe that a war across Taiwan will have no impact on us, then I would say that we are really living in a fool’s paradise.

“We have to be aware that a war between China and Taiwan will have incredibly negative consequences for, in fact, the whole world and also for our region,” he said in a fireside chat session held during the Penang Peace Dialogue conference at a hotel here today.

Later, Kishore told FMT that Southeast Asia would suffer from US involvement in a China-Taiwan war because the global economy would take a hit from the conflict.

“Global economic growth will go down, and our economies will suffer. There are many ways we’ll suffer. So, that is why we should prevent it,” he said.

Taiwan’s independence move could spark conflict

Kishore said that in order for the international community to prevent a Sino-Taiwan war from taking place, it should not support the conditions that will start such a war – which is Taiwan’s move to declare independence.

“If Taiwan declares independence, China will declare war on Taiwan, and then we will go down a slippery slope towards a global conflict,” he said.

He also shared that he told the Taiwanese that many have died fighting proxy wars since World War II, citing the Russia-Ukraine war as an example.

For Taiwan not to suffer a fate similar to Ukraine’s, he said, it should understand the red lines and ensure it does not cross them.

However, Kishore also said this does not mean the destiny of the Taiwanese is simply to be subjected by China.

“It is conceivable to work out all kinds of arrangements whereby the people of Taiwan enjoy autonomy, a good life, and have exactly what they have today, but yet, in principle, they are reunified with China.

“There are many creative diplomatic ways to find a solution, and you can look for those creative diplomatic ways to avoid any kind of war that would damage all of us,” he said.

Last month, Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim came under scrutiny over his remarks in an Al Jazeera interview, where he said he sees Taiwan as part of China.

Anwar’s statement drew praise from Beijing but condemnation from Taiwan, which warned that his “one-sided support” for China could affect the confidence of Taiwanese businesses investing in Malaysia.

Anwar stood by his remarks, saying that Malaysia’s one-China policy dates back to the era of then prime minister Abdul Razak Hussein and remains unchanged.

He also said Malaysia respects China’s position on Taiwan and believes a peaceful approach is the best way forward.

China has long claimed that democratically governed Taiwan is its territory and maintains that any formal move towards independence will trigger a military response. - FMT