WITH OR WITHOUT ROSMAH'S OK, NAJIB IS GETTING MARRIED AGAIN ... THIS TIME WITH HADI AWANG

IN THIS installment of the Kedai Kopi Assembly (KKA), we shall discuss (Datuk Seri Mappadulung Daeng Mattimung Karaeng Sanrobone) Mohd Najib bin Abdul Razak’s courting of Haji Abdul Hadi bin Awang.

For now, this very interesting development is safer seen as a romance between two desperate party leaders. They are drawn to each other as they drift further and further away from their party members and from reality.

These are two strangers in the night exchanging glances wondering what’s inside (their hearts) as they know that they are losing the hearts and minds of their party members.

Mohd Najib and Abdul Hadi: Romance of two desperate leaders

At the December Umno General Assembly (PAU), Mohd Najib called for Umno-PAS unity. Most observers interpreted this as a sign of UMNO's weakness and the desperation on Mohd Najib’s part.

In the 2013 General Elections, Mohd Najib led the Barisan Nasional into the worse ever electoral performance since 1969. Despite the hype, he did worse than Tun Abdullah Ahmad Badawi in 2008. Had it not been for Sabah and Sarawak, he would have lost the election altogether.

If Abdul Hadi could convince his party to join Umno, PAS could end up having a strong influence on Umno and the BN. Conversely, Sarawak’s and Sabah’s position as BN’s “fixed deposit” would be undermined. They might not be too happy with that.

Also, Sarawak and Sabah have different ethnic and religious composition that they may find the PAS “jubah” not to their liking.

They are better off supporting a unity government that is being built around the Umno veteran Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah.

The Marriage Lifeline

Abdul Hadi may be able to throw Mohd Najib the lifeline by bringing as many PAS seats as he could but the PM could end up losing support from Sarawak and Sabah. Remember, the majority of the people in the two Borneo states are Christians and they may not cherish sharing the bed with PAS.

Even the Muslim majority parties in the two states might not be too enthusiastic about the prospect of Umno-PAS hegemony. They are more likely to be at ease with Amanah, the newly formed PAS splinter party.

Mohd Najib and his inner circle might have done their basic arithmetic and plot their survival plan, but Umno members in general may not be all too excited about remarrying PAS that they divorced in 1977.

With the Sarawak state election approaching, would Mohd Najib dare risk alienating the voters there? He may be deeply in love with PAS but fallout with Sarawak would be costly.

Already he is facing demands for greater autonomy and higher oil and gas royalties from the two states. To buttress his power base, he appointed disproportionately high number of ministers from Sarawak and Sabah, many of whom are neither Malays nor Muslims. So when he talks about Malay unity and Islam, he frightens his own BN partners.

An Umno-PAS remarriage could spell more problems for the non-Malay parties of the BN. Former MCA president, (Tan Sri) Dr Chua SoiLek warned in his blog that any cooperation between PAS and Umno would sideline non-Muslim BN parties from mainstream politics.

In Mohd Najib's reading, he could sacrifice MCA and the Gerakan as they are unlikely to be able to deliver Chinese votes as was proven in the last GE’s Chinese Tsunami.

He is trying his luck with PAS. But would PAS be prepared to hop onto his sinking Bugis pinisi? Abdul Hadi and (Datuk) Harun Din may want the alliance but the grass root may not share their enthusiasm. Even the Umno grass root, if given the choice, may reject the proposal.

Malay support for UMNO/BN stands at 30% and Chinese at 5%. So it is unlikely that PAS supporters would want to join a weak coalition. A rift appears to have developed in PAS with its Deputy President (Datuk) Tuan Ibrahim Tuan Man leading the dissenting voice. Instead he wanted Mohd Najib to go on leave pending the completion of the 1MDB and the RM2.6-billion investigations.

Out of Touch

Mohd Najib’s political reading has been woefully misguided. He spent billions of ringgit during the 2013 GE and was confident of regaining the two third majority but instead he lost the popular votes.

With the 1MDB and the RM2.6-billion donation scandals, the GST, rising inflation and unemployment, the mounting national debt and debilitating household indebtedness, the next GE would be much tougher to win even when the opposition is in disarray.

The PAU was a chance for Umno leaders to get feedback from the grass root, but delegates were banned from raising these issues. Instead their energies were directed at praising and idolizing the President.

Mohd Najib compressed the two very important matters into a one-paragraph statement. He also failed to keep his promise to answer them in Parliament, giving the impression he really does not have a believable explanation to give.

There are just too many bad news and bad moves for a discredited PM to handle. The fallouts from the 1MDB scandal and his RM2.6-billion Arab donation have been so extensive that they impacted badly on every facet of the daily life of the country and its people.

A transformational PM and a once the beacon of hope has turned into the biggest liability the country has ever experienced in history. In the meantime the rakyat’s suffering gets worst.

Wallahuaklam. - http://kadirjasin.blogspot.my/