AZMIN WILL JUMP, CAUSING ANWAR TO JUMP!

Umar Mukhtar

The sixty-four thousand ringgit question is, when the new Islamist party is formed, and DAP invites that new party and PKR to join the new coalition, will Azmin Ali drop PAS as a partner in the Selangor state government? After all, that will definitely will be a pre-condition of joining PR Baru.

Looks like PKR will join because it cannot survive as a force to be reckoned with by being alone. Sungai Buloh knows that and has given signals to that effect, and PKR President Dr Wan Azizah Ismail is more than happy to follow.

Azmin will be forced to abandon the people who were partly responsible in making him Menteri Besar when his own party and DAP preferred Wan Azizah. The Istana was the other component of that equation. This one Azmin cannot ignore.

Damned if you do and damned if you don’t, Azmin. Wan Azizah who has more than an axe to grind, is relishing this possible scenario. With at least the two DAP-lovers PAS ADUNs jumping on the bandwagon, Azmin’s new coalition government seem to appear set till PRU14. So what’s the problem?

The problem is when PRU14 comes along, PKR’s traditional mixed-seats may have to be shared with the new party. This is because pitching the new party only against PAS is so risky. The new party may end up with none.

PAS may win all these Malay-majority seats it has now, or an opposition-vote splitting three-cornered fights, which include UMNO, will cause UMNO to win by default in some. Remember, Kota Damansara? So PKR may be asked to give the new party some of its present mixed-seats.

The trouble is the so-called progressives that make up the the new party leadership who are MPs and ADUNs won primarily because of PAS grass-roots support and not the intellectual type which is lesser. The progressives were actually ‘ehsan’ candidates compliments of the ulama wing. The progressive think otherwise. All frogs, no matter from whichever party, think alike.

So PKR will actually end up as a smaller party. The choice is unpalatable. PKR with no non-Malay support is a helpless dead-duck. And It will always be like that. Chances are Azmin will keep PAS as a partner in the Selangor state government, somehow using the Istana as an excuse.

So PKR Selangor will not join PKR Baru, pissing off Anwar and embarrassing his proxy wife. So, sack Azmin from PKR? Like what they did to Khalid Ibrahim. And make Wan Azizah Menteri Besar? Let’s not go there, the slope is too slippery!

One thing is clear – Azmin’s interests and Anwar’s interests will be in conflict. And Azmin’s support from PKR’s Selangor ADUN is solid. Anwar in prison with only his family and spineless, beholden non-Malay elected representative as supporters, is a hopeless pathetic sight.

Let me cut to the chase. Never in his political career will Azmin ever get this negotiation value again. His future in PKR is too mediocre for this ambitious young politician. Years of devoted loyalty to Anwar still doesn’t qualify him as family and he continue s to be treated like shit when it mattered. Yes, he can be PKR’s top dog one day. Does he want to be top dog of a party with no future?.

When push comes to shove, Azmin will jump into UMNO or PAS or becomes an UMNO-PAS-friendly Independent or whatever. Many will join him, even non-Selangor PKR elected representatives. How and when he does it is the measure of Azmin as a politician. But he will do it. Make no mistake. Taking the plunge may bring greater things for the man. Compared to remaining in PKR which is a sure bummer for him.

That will be the beginning of the end for PKR and the final nail in Anwar’s coffin. Azmin holds many things that many want. He will negotiate well for himself and his friends. Anwar has only endless baggage from years of lying, to the public and his own friends. Nobody wants that.