Another poll predicts 3-3 stalemate in tomorrow’s election

 

STATE POLLS | The pollster Merdeka Center is predicting that none of the six states heading to the polls tomorrow will be changing hands, echoing the forecast based on a smaller study by Ilham Centre that was released earlier today.

This means Pakatan Harapan and BN are expected to retain control of Penang, Selangor, and Negeri Sembilan, while Perikatan Nasional will retain Kedah, Kelantan, and Terengganu.

“The strong overt preference expressed by Malay voters towards PN in the Malay dominant majority states of Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu provide a window on the likely outcome of the elections there – that PN will likely gain further ground in the Malay constituencies at the expense of Umno and Harapan.

“These findings also indicate that the broad voting patterns along ethnic and regional lines attained during the 2022 general election largely remain in place in this state elections.

“The surveys conducted ahead of the state elections indicate that PN will likely maintain and marginally expand their Malay vote shares across all the six states. However, these gains are inadequate to wrest power in the three Harapan-held states,” it said in a statement today.

The survey was conducted via telephone with 6,179 voters in the six states from July 3 to yesterday afternoon – more than double the size of Ilham Centre’s survey.

The respondents were selected via randomised stratified sampling along the lines of ethnicity, gender, age groups, and state assembly constituencies. A racially representative sample was obtained for Selangor and Negeri Sembilan, while the polls in Kedah, Kelantan, Terengganu, and Penang focused on Malay voters only.

The margin of error varies between states, ranging from 1.80 percent in Selangor to 4.38 percent in Kedah and Kelantan.

The survey found the approval rating for the existing state governments to be in excess of 60 percent, except in Kelantan where only 51 percent of the Malay-only panel said they are satisfied with the state government versus 40 percent who are dissatisfied.

Popular MBs

The controversial Kedah caretaker menteri besar Muhammad Sanusi Md Nor appears to be the most popular chief minister or menteri besar among Malay voters, with an approval rating of 77 percent.

This is followed by Terengganu’s Ahmad Samsuri Moktar (67 percent), Selangor’s Amirudin Shari (63 percent), Negeri Sembilan’s Aminuddin Harun (58 percent) Kelantan’s Ahmad Yaacob (58 percent), and Penang’s Chow Kon Yeow (55 percent).

In Selangor, only 49 percent of overall respondents said they would choose Harapan-BN to be the next state government, versus 36 percent who preferred PN. Most of the support for PN is driven by Malays (46 percent), as Chinese and Indian voters surveyed overwhelmingly favoured Harapan-BN.

The support for Harapan-BN is stronger in Negeri Sembilan, but is again polarised along racial lines with negligible support for PN among non-Malays.

In states where only Malay voters were analysed by Merdeka Center, the support for PN is 66 percent in Kedah, 57 percent in Terengganu, 50 percent in Kelantan, and 49 percent in Penang. The corresponding figure for Selangor and Negeri Sembilan are 46 percent and 32 percent, respectively.

Merdeka Center said the firm non-Malay support for Harapan hinges on their turn-out rate, but the same cannot be said for out-of-state Malay voters.

“Questions about out-of-town Malay voters to Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu may become academic as PN enjoys significant majority support that reduces their dependence on out-of-state voters to make the trek home to vote,” it said.

Voter concerns mostly centred around inflation and economic issues, which more than half of respondents in each state mentioning it when asked what they would like candidates to discuss or debate.

Merdeka Centre also noted that 9.3 percent of respondents in Kelantan and 5.1 percent in Kedah expressed interest in water management issues, which is higher than other states. - Mkini