Civil servants could scuttle PH-BN’s hopes in Johor

 

Umno vice-president Khaled Nordin said on Aug 18 that there would be no “green wave” of support for Perikatan Nasional (PN) in two by-elections due in Johor next month. He was confident that what happened in the recent elections in six states would not be repeated.

Khaled said Amanah candidates, representing Pakatan Harapan (PH), would retain the Pulai parliamentary and Simpang Jeram state seats, which fell vacant following the death of Salahuddin Ayub on July 23, in the Sept 9 by-elections.

He said PN could not use the same strategy it used in the state elections – telling voters that the unity government would fall if PN won the state seats – as it would not be applicable in the two by-elections.

In the 2022 general election and again in the state elections on Aug 12, PN – in particular PAS – increased its seats in both Parliament and the six states largely at the expense of Umno. Most analysts called it the “green wave”.

Many said youths were at the forefront of the green wave following the lowering of the voting age from 21 to 18 last year. Perhaps so.

But I think most people left out a significant bloc of voters who have swung from Umno towards PN, especially PAS: civil servants and uniformed personnel such as soldiers.

At one time, they were considered a “fixed deposit” for BN, especially Umno. But no more.

There is no way that PN could have made inroads into PH strongholds such as Penang and Selangor without the support of a good number of civil servants, soldiers and policemen. There is no way that PN could have won all state seats in Terengganu, 43 of 45 seats in Kelantan and 33 of 36 seats in Kedah without the support of many civil servants and uniformed personnel.

We don’t have to look too far. In last November’s general election, PN candidate Radzi Jidin defeated five other candidates to win the Putrajaya parliamentary seat with a 2,310-vote majority. He received 16,002 votes to beat Umno’s four-term candidate Tengku Adnan Mansor who received 13,692 votes.

And the national administrative capital, we know, is largely, if not overwhelmingly, populated with civil servants.

It appears that decisions of the unity government which have favoured the 1.6 million civil servants, including giving one-off payments such as Bantuan Khas Penghargaan, did not make an impression on them.

Can we assume that money is not a factor for them, just as physical development does not seem to be a factor for voters in states such as Kelantan, Terengganu and Kedah?

Even Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s promise on Aug 11 to “slightly” raise the salaries of civil servants through the second Madani Budget in October while waiting for the completion of a comprehensive study on the salary and retirement scheme for civil servants next year did not appease them.

Why?

I think they fear that Anwar will reform the civil service to make it leaner and more efficient and in the process some or many of them may be affected. Some PH leaders and other groups have for a long time called for a trimming of the civil service and the infusion of more non-Malays.

Right now, about 90% of the civil service is made up of Malays and there have been increasing calls for reform, especially for more non-Malays to be recruited.

From the 1980s, BN governments with Umno at the helm, began recruiting more Malays into the civil service and used it to empower Bumiputeras. There is fear that the unity government – and especially PH with DAP as a partner – may checkmate this role.

Remember, Dr Mahathir Mohamad and other Cabinet members in 2018 and 2019 said they were facing resistance from some civil servants? That was a time when there was much talk about reforms, including trimming the civil service.

In fact, Mahathir said in December 2019 that he would look into allegations of the existence of a “deep state” within the civil service which was sabotaging the PH government.

The problem is that in Malaysia, almost everything is framed as a racial or religious issue or interpreted as touching on two of the 3Rs, the third being royalty. So, any talk of reforming the civil service is seen as an attempt to weaken the Malay position.

That is what happened when, in February, then DAP Penang leader P Ramasamy called on Putrajaya to reform the civil service saying: “The Malaysian civil service is not only bloated in terms of the number of employed, it consists of one ethnic group, predominantly the Malays.”

He was reported as saying that given the diversification of the economy and change in ownership pattern, it did not make sense “to ensure the civil service remains completely in the hands of the Malays”.

“Such a racial policy cannot be defended anymore, not when the unity government is in power.”

Such talk spooked many civil servants and PN used it to the hilt during the campaigning for the Aug 12 polls.

Also, could it be possible that some of them are uneasy with Anwar’s drive to clean up the civil service, including procurement systems? I keep hearing that corruption has become institutionalised in Malaysia. If this is so, surely the civil service is not spared from this.

Every year the auditor-general lists out monetary leakages and inefficiencies in the civil service, and Anwar wants this plugged.

Reform is definitely needed but Anwar has to handle it carefully. He has to convince government workers that reform is good for both the civil service and the nation and allay fears that Malays will lose out.

He has to convince them and the public to not look at everything with race- or religion-tinted spectacles. If he can do that, it will be a spectacular achievement indeed.

So, as the by-elections in Johor loom, it would pay dividends for PH-BN to win over civil servants – at least those in these constituencies – while also working on youths, lowering the cost of living and convincing Malays to trust Anwar. - FMT

The views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily reflect that of MMKtT.