Harapan-BN risks losing 7 seats as 'Sanusi factor' drives support for PN

 

STATE POLLS | As the battle for Kedah approaches a climax, one thing is becoming quite evident.

While support for caretaker menteri besar Muhammad Sanusi Md Nor is not universal in the state, his popularity is both outgrowing Perikatan Nasional and becoming a major draw for voters to back the coalition at the same time.

Meanwhile, the Pakatan Harapan-BN coalition appears to be struggling with dissent from BN supporters in several seats - putting at least seven seats they currently hold in danger while severely limiting any potential gains.

One such seat where both factors are at play is Gurun.

Supporters cheer after EC announces Sanusi as a Jeneri candidate.

Here, Harapan campaigners indicated to Malaysiakini that only 60 to 70 percent of BN supporters will vote for them on Saturday.

Separately, several voters who previously cast their ballots for BN told Malaysiakini that they will either vote for PN or spoil their votes out of frustration.

“I’ll be honest, I might just ‘pangkah’ (cross) both of them and let it be a spoilt vote - it’ll make things all the easier,” a poultry trader who declined to be named said.

Meanwhile, PN’s candidate, footballer Baddrol Bakhtiar, is enjoying support thanks to his close association with Sanusi.

During the election campaign, Sanusi at a friendly football match with the Kedah Chinese Football Association.

“When people see Baddrol, they see Sanusi,” said a PN supporter who only wished to be known as Fauzi.

A youth voter who only identified herself as Alyaa also voiced a similar opinion.

“(I am voting) for menteri besar Sanusi, because he is humble and has the people at heart, he is not a snob,” the 23-year-old Gurun voter told Malaysiakini.

Meanwhile, in Pedu, Kedah BN chief Mahdzir Khalid also has to deal with disgruntled BN voters.

In Pedu, the disgruntlement appears to be over Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi’s leadership.

“I’m disappointed. The (BN-Harapan) cooperation was planned. Prior to GE15, it was always ‘No Anwar, no DAP’. And we saw Zahid face these court charges,” said one Umno member who declined to be named.

Kedah BN chief Mahdzir Khalid

Another voter, an odd job worker who only wanted to be known as Hashim, said while he is an Umno man, he has come to hate the party.

However, he will be abstaining from voting instead of defecting.

“I have not ‘kalih’ (turned away) from Umno, but I hate it.

“(But) if I wanted to cross PN (in the vote ballot) I am unable to because I am an Umno man and a member for over 30 years,” said the 54-year-old, adding that his six children will also not be voting.

The disgruntlement among BN voters in Gurun and Pedu - if unabated - could seriously hamper Harapan-BN’s chances on polling day.

In Gurun, if support for Harapan from BN remains at 60 to 70 percent, then Harapan is at serious risk of losing the seat to PN unless it can convince five to 10 percent of PN voters to switch sides.

In Pedu, Mahdzir’s campaign is already starting with a handicap as PN had secured 56 percent of votes in the state constituency during GE15.

If the Kedah BN chief cannot muster BN support at full strength on Saturday, even a small flip from PN to BN may not be enough for him to win back the seat for Umno.

For other seats, if an average of 10 percent of voters who voted BN in the 15th general election switch to PN, the Madani coalition stands to lose Alor Mengkudu, Bandar Baharu, Kota Siputeh, Pengkalan Kundor, Suka Menanti, and Sungai Tiang.

This scenario will play out even if 10 percent of PN voters also swing to Harapan-BN in those seats.

Further, in this scenario, the only gain for Harapan and BN will be Sidam - another seat PKR lost to defection in 2020.

Meanwhile, the effect of Sanusi’s popularity was even more evident in Lunas - a seat PKR aims to retake after losing it to defection in 2020.

Villagers are setting up a PN flag array for the campaign.

Rosli Abdul, 47, had a negative perception of PN’s Lunas candidate Khairul Anuar Ramli after a video of the latter shoving another person went viral.

However, he said he would still vote for PN because of Sanusi.

“That is not how a leader should behave. We want a leader who is sincere and not arrogant. I want to vote for a candidate who is not problematic.

“But because of the immense respect I have for Sanusi, I have no choice but to vote for Khairul Anuar,” he said.

Khairul Anuar has since claimed that the video was from three years ago and that he had been charged and cleared in court.

Likewise, Md Yusni Md Razli is also casting his ballot for the Lunas candidate because of Sanusi.

“Sanusi grew up in a hardcore poor family and understands the people’s struggles. Some may say that Sanusi is ‘loklaq’ (acting crazy) but he’s not, that’s how Kedahans speak. I will vote for the PN candidate because of him,” he told Malaysiakini.

The trend repeated itself further north in Pedu, where Mahdzir is looking to make a comeback to the state legislature.

“(I’m voting) because of Sanusi,” a 56-year-old odd worker who only identified himself as Zul told Malaysiakini when asked if he was voting for PN or Sanusi.

Sanusi delivering a speech in Kuala Kedah.

Not everyone in Kedah feels the same about Sanusi, particularly those supporting BN or Harapan.

The Kedah caretaker menteri besar has cultivated an image as a brash and blunt orator, which many consider abrasive.

Supporters taking selfies with Sanusi during a campaign event.

But for some of his fans in Kedah, like Gurun voter Fauzi, it was what they liked about him.

“People say he is ‘loklaq’, that he is rude, but you have to think.

“If you are fighting a tiger, you can’t be a pussycat. If you don’t fight like that (Sanusi’s way) you can’t raise (issues). The people’s voices will be lost.

“And Sanusi is our voice. Even if he is ‘loklaq’, people listen because of that. And what he says is true even if some see it as wrong,” he told Malaysiakini.

For Fauzi and others, Sanusi might even be a prime minister someday.

Such a feeling was even shared by a retired police officer Malaysiakini met - who is a federal government supporter.

“If he (Sanusi) didn’t raise weird issues, I think he can even be the 11th prime minister,” Hashim Hussein said.

PAS and PN flags create a makeshift tunnel in Sik.

Meanwhile, Sanusi’s legal troubles - including two sedition charges for allegedly insulting the royalty - as well as Putrajaya’s attempts to discredit him by raising the illegal rare earth mining in Sik, do not appear to be having an impact on voters.

Several voters Malaysiakini spoke to did not express a thorough understanding of these issues, nor did they find it problematic.

“We don’t know whether he’s wrong (on the sedition charge) or the charges are wrong, we don’t know what the statement was, we don’t know what the charge actually is, we just know it’s something do to with sedition,” said a Jeneri voter, Zambri Zainol.

In such a persona-driven campaign, any chance for Harapan-BN to gain an advantage and win over PN voters to their side rests on Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim.

Anwar has already blitzed Kedah with a charm offensive last Friday and is expected to make another campaign visit to the state this coming Friday, during the last day of campaigning.

PN supporters raise their arms to copy Sanusi’s pose mocking Anwar Ibrahim.

One expert that is optimistic that Harapan and BN can make gains in Kedah is Mohd Azizuddin Mohd Sani.

While acknowledging that ground sentiment favouring PN was strong, the Kedah native and Universiti Utara Malaysia professor said he has observed some movement in support from PN to Harapan-BN during the campaign.

This was mainly after the prime minister’s visit last week.

“Kedahans like to see and meet him. They want to hear what he has to say,” he said.

However, he admitted it was too early to see how significant this impact will be at the ballot box.

Meanwhile, Anwar on Tuesday announced an increase to the Paddy Price Subsidy Scheme rate from RM360 to RM500 per metric tonne of paddy productions, which took effect on Wednesday.

While the announcement was made in Perak, it will likely have some impact in gaining support for Harapan-BN in Kedah - known as the nation’s rice bowl due to its large rice-growing industry.

PN uses social media live streams to broadcast Sanusi’s speeches.

Separately another unknown factor was outstation voters who will only return to Kedah on voting day.

A senior BN voter in Jeneri - Sanusi’s seat - had expressed concern to Malaysiakini that Kedah’s youth diaspora is out of touch with realities on the ground in Kedah, especially in rural areas, leading them to view PN more positively.

Rudimentary simulations by Malaysiakini indicate that for Harapan and BN to win in Kedah, they must secure at least a 20 percent vote swing from PN, besides ensuring a high turnout.

Kedah goes to the polls this Saturday.

---