STATE POLLS | In 2018, PKR veteran Johari Abdul wrested the Gurun seat from BN in a four-cornered fight with 47.3 percent of the total votes.
Now, the party is fielding Johari’s son Firdaus who is banking on BN support and the track record of his father - who is now the Dewan Rakyat speaker - to keep the seat.
His opponent, Perikatan Nasional’s Baddrol Bakhtiar, is a football player who is also counting on the support of Kedah caretaker menteri besar Muhammad Sanusi Md Nor in his quest to win the seat.
In GE15, 48 percent of voters in Gurun cast their ballots for PN, followed by 35 percent from Pakatan Harapan and 18 percent of BN voters.
On paper, if all BN voters that voted in GE15 voted for Harapan in the state elections, Firdaus would win the seat with a simple majority.
However, the reality may not reflect this.
Malaysiakini was made to understand that, as of the first leg of campaigning, Harapan is expecting 60 to 70 percent of BN voters to vote for Harapan in the Gurun constituency, with the others expected to defect to PN.
Assuming such a scenario is true, this could spell disaster for Harapan.
Simulations by Malaysiakini, however, indicate that the BN swing can be mitigated if five to 10 percent of PN voters in Gurun switch their votes to Harapan.
But this might prove an arduous task for Firdaus, who is trying to get 20 percent of Malays in Gurun - who make up 60 percent of the local electorate - to back him.
Firdaus (above) admitted in a recent interview that he would be banking on his father’s legacy to win over voters in the state election, even if his father cannot help him in the campaign period so as to remain impartial.
Johari was made Dewan Rakyat speaker in December last year and vacated his seat to remain impartial.
Flipping to PN
Some BN voters Malaysiakini met, however, lamented that Firdaus’ father, Johari, did not meet the needs of the people during his tenure as the Gurun assemblyperson.
“Many have complained that he places importance on himself, and we don’t know Firdaus very well either,” said a chicken trader who declined to be named.
However, when presented with Baddrol - who is the only other option - the trader said that the people were “confused” by him.
“He said he didn’t dare come up with a manifesto and tell us what he wants to do for us - even on development.
“I’ll be honest, I might just pangkah (cross) both of them and let it be a spoilt vote - it’ll make things all the easier,” he said.
Food seller Norhasli Yusof, who previously voted for BN when she was living in Penang, said she would cast her ballot for PN in this election.
Norhasli, who moved to Kedah when she got married to her husband, said she was following her family’s footsteps in voting for the PN coalition as it was the strongest party in the area.
“I started voting for PN when I moved here, and I will probably do the same (in these elections),” she said.
Likewise, another Gurun voter who only wanted to be identified as Fauzi will now be casting his vote for PN, despite having voted for both BN and Harapan in the past.
“I was never a fan of (Harapan chairperson) Anwar (Ibrahim) but I gave him a chance (in 2018) anyway. But even in these past few months he has not made any changes.
“I’m frustrated, I will vote for PN,” he said.
He expressed strong fondness for Sanusi and said he would vote for Baddrol because he was personally chosen by the former.
“And perhaps Baddrol could become the Youth and Sports exco in the state,” he added.
Sanusi boost
While Baddrol is familiar to many as a renowned professional football player, his political career is boosted by Sanusi’s support.
“I was drawn by his leadership as he’s someone that is resilient and patient,” said Sanusi during a ‘Sembang Santai’ event held in Gurun on Aug 3.
In response to criticisms that Baddrol was unfamiliar with politics, having previously relied on reading from speech text during ceramah, Sanusi said “not all leaders are debaters”.
“He plays balls with his legs, not his mouth. You have to look at everyone’s abilities - he is highly sought after in his field,” he said.
Sanusi’s approval of Baddrol plays an important factor in some young voters like a 23-year-old who only wished to be known as Alyaa.
“I would like to see the candidates first, but I previously voted for PN because it (prioritises) Islam and religion. My family also votes for PN,” the second-time voter said.
When asked if her support for the coalition was due to the party or Sanusi, she replied that it was the latter that appealed to her because he was “humble”.
She added that she had not met either candidate contesting in the area but recognised Baddrol, opining that he was “similar” to Sanusi.
Better chance with Chinese community
Firdaus' chances, meanwhile, are better with the local Chinese community - who voted for PKR even though MCA was representing BN for the seat.
One long-time Harapan supporter - who declined to be named - said she was quite familiar with Firdaus and his father Johari.
“We have taken pictures with him, he attends Chinese events and always comes up to greet and talk to us,” said the woman, who sells prayer supplies.
The woman and her husband added that it was Firdaus who helped them when their shop was hit by flash floods.
“The floods were due to rushing water from Gunung Jerai, it was quite serious here, our products perished," the husband - who also declined to be named - said.
"(Firdaus) bought us rice, sugar, oil and Milo. All the Chinese support him,” he said, adding that his two daughters and son would also be voting for him in the polls.
However, the woman added that not only the Chinese but some Malay customers that swung by their shop said they would vote for Harapan.
“That makes me feel happy because it feels like we are on the same team,” she said.
A motor supply shopkeeper who only wanted to be known as Uncle Ong shared the same sentiment.
He said all Chinese voters were likely to vote for Harapan as well, but that overall support for Firdaus might be stumped because of the Malay population in the area.
Most of the voters Malaysiakini spoke to said that they and their families will show up on polling day to vote.
Turnout will be another important factor for Harapan if it wants to keep the seat, as turnout below 90 percent among its supporters could result in defeat.
Kedah goes to the polls on Aug 12. - Mkini
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