Research centre predicts a draw in all states

 Think tank Ilham Centre has predicted a 3-3 score for the six state elections tomorrow.

Based on its survey of voters and ongoing campaign, the research house predicts a status quo in terms of which coalition will form the six state governments.

This means the Pakatan Harapan-BN coalition will retain Selangor, Negeri Sembilan and Penang, while Perikatan Nasional will keep Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu.

In Selangor, Harapan's support base, non-Malay voters will come out to vote in force partly in response to PN's "aggressive campaigning".

"PN's aggressive campaign has frightened this segment of voters and our data suggests non-Malay voters will come out in high numbers in Selangor," it said.

This means PN will need very strong support from the Malay electorate - at least 70 percent - to win state power, it said.

However, its survey shows Malay supporters of Harapan will largely remain with Harapan.

Making inroads

Even so, PN will make inroads in the north of Selangor in majority Malay rural areas like Sementa and Sungai Kandis, now held by PKR, it said.

Hulu Kelang, contested by former Selangor menteri besar Azmin Ali for PN, is too close to call, it said.

In Negeri Sembilan, only three constituencies - Ampangan, Bagan Pinang, and Gemas - will see a tough fight from PN, it said.

PN could also have a good chance in Malay-majority constituencies in Penang, namely Penaga, Pinang Tunggal, Permatang Berangan, and Sungai Dua, while a close fight is expected in Telok Ayer Tawar, Permatang Pasir, and Penanti, it predicted.

In Kedah, the “Sanusi factor” will block Harapan-BN from winning the state, Ilham Centre predicted.

In fact, Harapan-BN’s decision to attack Kedah caretaker menteri besar Muhammad Sanusi Md Nor throughout the campaign may cost them several seats in the state, the researchers said.

If there is low turnout among non-Malay voters in Kedah, PN has the potential to garner a clean sweep, it said.

However, as of the last day of campaigning, Harapan-BN still has a fighting chance in Derga, Kota Darul Aman, Sidam, and Bakar Arang, it said.

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No credible Harapan leader

Although only 57 percent and 61 percent of voters Ilham Centre polled in Kelantan and Terengganu respectively believe PAS should remain in power, respondents also found no convincing alternative in Harapan-BN in those states.

"The lack of a credible leader, especially in Kelantan, has diluted the disillusioned voters' eagerness to switch to the coalition (Harapan-BN)," it said.

Harapan-BN only stands a fighting chance in Kota Lama and Galas in Kelantan, with the help of Chinese voters there, it said.

In Terengganu, only Telemung is in the bag for Harapan-BN, while the coalition could make inroads in Kijal, Seberang Takir, and Permaisuri, if Umno campaigners are able to convince voters there. The constituency of Bandar will be a close fight due to the sizeable non-Malay votes, the researchers found.

The Ilham Centre researchers are Hisomuddin Bakar, Mohd Azlan Zainal, Mohd Jalaluddin Hashim, Mohd Yusri Ibrahim and Mujibu Abd Muis.

Ilham Centre's predictions are based on its survey of 2,304 voters in Kelantan, Terengganu, Kedah, Penang, Selangor and Negeri Sembilan, from July 29 to Aug 8.

Another 48 respondents provided insights through in-depth interviews.

The respondents were chosen using the stratified random sampling method to represent different ages, ethnicity, locality, occupation, level of education, and household size.

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- Mkini