Well it has not happened yet.
Israel has killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. Just a few days after that, they killed Nasrallah's successor Hashem Saifeddine (Hashim Saifudin). Then yesterday Israeli PM Netanyahu has personally confirmed that Israel has also killed Hashem Saifeddine's successor (Syed Amini or something). Three Hezbollah leaders in a row have been assassinated. It has now come to light that Naim Qassim, who was the original Deputy Head of Hezbollah but for some reason was never promoted to replace Hassan Nasrallah, has now quite understandably, resigned from his post.
The ayatollahs have warned that if any Arab countries (Saudi Arabia and Jordan) allow Israeli jets to fly through their airspace to attack Iran then they will retaliate against those Arab countries.
Tehran warns Gulf states: Aiding Israel against Iran will provoke response. An Iranian official told Reuters that "Iran made it clear that any action by a Persian Gulf country against Tehran" would be responded to accordingly.
In April 2024 the Israeli airforce already flew across Arab countries to bomb Iran. Yet the ayatollahs did not retaliate against Saudi Arabia or Jordan.
The ayatollahs are clearly not military strategists. They do not teach Sun Tzu or Clausewitz in mullah school.
The "bottleneck" that everyone is talking about now is the 3200 km flight distance (two way) from Tel Aviv to Teheran and back. This is too far for any airforce unless they have mid air refueling. Israel has SEVEN air to air refueling tankers (Old Boeing 707s, please see picture).
They did use these tankers during their first counter strike but this second strike may need more fighters.
It takes about FIVE minutes to refuel a jet mid air and as the picture shows a single tanker can refuel three fighters at a time. Technically SEVEN tankers can refuel 21 jet fighters at a time but there is also the issue of fuel capacity per air tanker.
The tanker carries about 90 tonnes of fuel while an F15 carries a fuel load of about SIX tonnes ONE WAY. TWO WAY may need up to a maximum of 12 tonnes of fuel. So one air tanker can refuel about SEVEN F15s midair. SEVEN tankers can handle about 49 jet fighters TWO WAY. Will that be sufficient?
However if the ayatollahs attack Saudi Arabia and the Gulf countries it will likely open up Saudi Arabian, Jordanian and Gulf Arab airbases for Israeli aircraft. If the ayatollahs attack the Arab countries, patriotic fervour and public opinion on Arab Street will immediately swing behind their ruling regimes. Allowing Israel to use Arab airbases to strike at Iran will likely not be an issue with the Arab Street anymore. The Israelis will not be constrained by air to air refueling anymore.
So the ayatollahs are taking a big risk - if they attack the Arab countries, they face the risk of uniting and mobilising all the Arab countries against themselves.
Here is the reality - the ayatollahs have no friends in the Middle East other than belligerent groups like Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, the al Assad regime in Syria which themselves have few or no friends in the Middle East. Plus the ayatollahs have bought and paid for these few "friends" that they have. Militarily they are all unmighty midgets in the Middle East - just like the ayatollahs themselves.
Iran is in no position to fight any type of war now. My earlier estimate of Iran having up to 30,000 missiles needs to be corrected. Indian military analysts say Iran may have 3,000 or so missiles in their arsenal. Which makes the possibility of Hezbollah having 150,000 rockets even more remote. Unless water pipes converted into "point and shoot" firecrackers are also counted.
The Israelis have other options like long range ballistic missiles and cruise missiles. They have large numbers of saboteurs who have been blowing things up inside Iran for some time. Then there is that super mysterious Israeli submarine force.
The ayatollahs are clearly not military strategists. They do not teach Sun Tzu or Clausewitz* in mullah school.
*Carl Philipp Gottfried von Clausewitz was a Prussian general and military theorist who stressed the "moral" and political aspects of waging war. His most notable work, Vom Kriege, though unfinished at his death, is considered a seminal treatise on military strategy and science. Wikipedia
The views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily reflect those of MMKtT.
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