BN-PN blue wave can sweep 122 seats in GE16, says think tank

 Ilham Centre chief Hisommudin Bakar says there is a high possibility that the Barisan Nasional-Perikatan Nasional alliance will win enough seats in Peninsular Malaysia alone for them to take power.

There is a high possibility of Barisan Nasional and Perikatan Nasional becoming partners in the next government, but they will have to hammer out a solid deal to make it a reality. (Bernama pic)

PETALING JAYA:

The blue wave has the potential to sweep up to 122 parliamentary seats in Peninsular Malaysia into the Barisan Nasional-Perikatan Nasional fold going into the next general election (GE16).

But the think tank Ilham Centre, which arrived at the conclusion, said this projection is premised on voting patterns in Negeri Sembilan spreading across the nation.

Ilham Centre executive director Hisommudin Bakar said that if Umno and PAS — the Malay-Muslim parties in their respective coalitions — could get their supporters to continue backing each other’s candidates, they could capture seats narrowly won by Pakatan Harapan (PH) previously.

He was responding to a comment made earlier this week by Parti Bangsa Malaysia president Larry Sng that Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS) and Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) may no longer be the kingmaker in Malaysian politics.

Sng based his views on the fact that BN and PN together already won 104 seats in GE15, just eight short of a simple majority.

If the BN-PN alliance wins the 122 seats as projected by Hisommudin, it would have 10 more than is needed to form the next government.

Hisommudin told FMT this would be possible if Umno and PAS supporters truly accepted each other’s candidates at the grassroots level.

“It can translate into victories in many marginal seats that PH previously won,” he added.

Of the 222 seats in the Dewan Rakyat, 166 are in the peninsula, 31 are in Sarawak and 25 are in Sabah.

Malay dominion

Malay voters account for more than 51% of the electorate in 138 seats in the peninsula. Of these, they make up at least 65% of voters in 86 seats.

However, Hisommudin pointed out, not all these seats are in the Malay heartland. “They include constituencies in towns and in areas at the fringes of the cities,” he said.

He added that in these seats, especially those where the support base between PH and BN or PN is almost on par, “the results could go either way”.

“This is the real battleground. These are seats where the three main coalitions — PH, BN, and PN — are expected to field candidates. This is where it will be determined which side eventually forms the federal government,” Hisommudin added.

He said the closest contest would likely be in seats with multiracial electorates, and they are largely in semi-urban areas. This includes seats where Malays make up 50% to 70% of the electorate.

“This is where Malay supporters of BN-PN will come up against non-Malays who are still inclined to vote for PH,” he added.

Hisommudin believes another hung parliament is less likely if GE16 is a two-horse race between the BN-PN alliance and PH, as votes would not be split as extensively as in multi-cornered contests.

A total of 112 seats is required for a simple majority in the Dewan Rakyat. In the last general election in 2022, not a single party or coalition garnered enough seats for even a simple majority, leaving Malaysia with a hung parliament.

Eventually BN, with 30 seats, GPS with 23 and GRS with seven agreed to join PH to form a unity government, paving the way for PKR president Anwar Ibrahim to become prime minister.

Factors to consider

Given that a lot can still happen between now and GE16, the outcome is still very much in the air.

Hisommudin said the prevailing economic situation and cost of living could change voter sentiments as much as disputes among allies and candidate selections.

For Francis Hutchinson, a senior fellow with the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, the biggest test will be how BN and PN divide the seats in Pahang, Perak and Selangor between them.

So far, he pointed out, the alliance has only been tested in states where reaching a deal was easy for both sides, namely Johor and Negeri Sembilan where PAS is weak.

PN fielded candidates in 11 of the 36 seats at the Negeri Sembilan polls on Aug 1 and 33 of the 56 seats at the Johor state election on July 11.

Bersatu, which has fallen out with PAS, vied for 16 seats in Johor and 24 in Negeri Sembilan but failed to win any. It contested in Negeri Sembilan under its own logo.

Hutchinson said both BN and PN would eye the same Malay-majority and semi-urban seats in Pahang, Perak and Selangor, which will make negotiations “very difficult”.

He said that while urban Malays are likely to back BN-PN, it may not be enough to swing the outcome in large, mixed and urban seats where they account for a smaller proportion of the electorate.

In these seats, the voter turnout, especially among non-Malays, would be a determining factor, he added.

Hutchinson added that a formal partnership with PN could also make it harder for BN’s smaller parties to attract non-Malay voters in mixed seats.

“One of the takeaways from the Johor polls is that BN, and particularly its non-Umno components, can be electorally viable. However, this will be undercut if BN explicitly partners with PN.

“Already some within the other BN parties have voiced concern about the implications of teaming up with PN,” he added. - FMT