ANALYSIS | The six state elections will likely end in a draw for Pakatan Harapan-BN and Perikatan Nasional, with each pact winning three states, and with no state changing hands.
Both major coalitions contesting the polls had hoped to flip at least one state, Kedah for Harapan-BN, and Selangor for PN.
However, both campaigns do not appear to be reaching their full potential.
Despite this, one wild card that may change the outcome in Harapan-BN’s favour is outstation voters - whose sentiments remain unpredictable.
For Harapan and BN, their cooperation and efforts as the federal government appears to have had a marginal impact at best on those who live in Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu.
A survey by the Ilham Centre in July suggests that the majority of voters in Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu do not hold a positive view of Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim.
The same survey suggests that only one in four Malays are satisfied with the premier’s performance.
Conversations Malaysiakini had with over 70 voters throughout Kedah appear to indicate that most of the electorate had already made up their minds, and would be sticking to choices they made in the 15th general election.
At the same time, there are signs that a considerable number of those who voted BN last year, may either be sitting out the polls or swinging to PN.
This disgruntlement towards BN appears to be a combination of unhappiness with Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi’s leadership as well as dissatisfaction with the government in general.
PN still dominant in Kedah, K’tan, T’ganu
In Kedah, caretaker Menteri Besar Muhammad Sanusi Md Nor is also a major obstacle for Harapan and BN.
Sanusi has gained such a strong following in Kedah that there are voters throughout the state who will be voting for PN because they want Sanusi back in office.
As it stands, Harapan-BN is at risk of losing ground and winning fewer seats rather than capturing the state.
Over in Kelantan, the Madani coalition is putting up a tough fight in several seats, such as Kota Lama, Wakaf Bharu, Pulai Chondong, Temangan, Kemuning, Galas, Nenggiri, and Paloh.
However, the best they can hope for is to stop PN from making a clean sweep in the state as they did in GE15.
The situation appears to be similar in Terengganu, where PKR deputy president Rafizi Ramli - a key Harapan strategist - is reported to have admitted that PN is still in the lead.
“In Terengganu, in my view, PN is still ahead of us, and I admit this openly,” he had said at a ceramah in Telok Ayer Tawar, Penang, on Sunday.
Any chance for the Madani coalition to beat the odds rests with outstation voters - particularly fence-sitters living in Harapan-BN states.
If 20 percent of these fence-sitters - who previously voted PN - swing to Harapan-BN, there is a fighting chance for the coalition to win in Kedah, while making gains in Kelantan and Terengganu.
Scare tactics to encourage turnout
To encourage turnout from their outstation supporters and fence-sitters, however, Harapan has often resorted to scare tactics.
Just as PN is playing up Malay Muslims being under threat and losing power, Harapan is also reaching for similar tactics.
Penang DAP, for example, had claimed that 20 percent of Chinese voters in the state might be swinging to PN, abstaining from voting, or spoiling their votes.
Meanwhile, voters are also being spooked into fearing the possibility that non-Muslims in Harapan-led states would lose personal liberties like being able to wear shorts if PN were to come to power.
Even Anwar had engaged in such rhetoric.
In his contentious exchange with a non-Malay student who wanted education quotas replaced by a meritocracy system, Anwar said doing so would be disastrous.
“If I wanted to appeal to you, ‘today Anwar says repeal the quota system’, we will lose all the elections in this country and you will suffer more in this country run by PAS and Bersatu,” he had said during the engagement session with students on Aug 5.
Meanwhile, Anwar had also warned that if voters in Selangor “vote wrongly” then the state might end up like Kedah or Kelantan.
Whether or not such scare tactics would work for Harapan and BN remain to be seen.
However, it does run the risk of alienating voters in PN-held states.
“It makes me angry when they compare states because Kedah has many places that have been developed,” said Muhamad Abid Najimi Ahmad, a 19-year-old Kedah voter.
Beyond scare tactics, the Madani government also appears to be making moves to win over conservative Malay voters.
This includes increased, among others, subsidies for rice farmers, as well as the Home Ministry’s move on Thursday to ban Swatch watches that contain LGBT elements.
PN wave hits Selangor coastal seats
Meanwhile, PN’s campaign in Selangor appears to be doing better than Harapan-BN’s push in Kedah.
In the northeast of the state, PN appears to be making a big splash in the coastal areas from Sabak Bernam to Tanjong Karang and has made it a big focus for campaigning efforts.
Five Harapan-BN seats in these areas are in danger of being flipped to PN, namely Sungai Air Tawar, Sabak, Sungai Panjang, Sungai Burung, and Permatang.
PN is also making waves in Kuala Selangor, where it is expected to win back the Jeram state.
Harapan insiders, meanwhile, have expressed concern about their chances of retaining the Bukit Melawati and Ijok seats.
READ MORE: Neck-and-neck battle for Kuala S'gor as PN eyes a sweep on northern coast
Other seats where PN are putting up a tough fight and may gain ground in Selangor include Kuang in Selayang, Sungai Ramal in Bangi, Selat Klang in Kapar, as well Sijangkang and Morib in Kuala Langat.
Other Malay-majority seats are also going to be hotly contested.
However, in some areas, it hasn’t been smooth sailing.
This is especially in Gombak, where former Selangor menteri besar Azmin Ali and his aide Hilman Idham are contesting in Hulu Kelang and Gombak Setia.
The local PAS machinery there is reportedly upset that the two seats were given to Bersatu to contest, and has not been making much effort to mobilise its supporters for Azmin and Hilman’s campaign.
PN secretary-general Hamzah Zainudin had said that the coalition had not revealed who their Selangor menteri besar candidate is, in case the candidate ends up losing.
Meanwhile, PN is also dealing with infighting in Batang Kali, where the Hulu Selangor Bersatu division has aggressively pushed back against the party’s choice of candidate.
There is also reportedly unhappiness among the local PN grassroots in Bukit Malawati due to the coalition’s candidate being a former Umno Youth leader who only joined PN recently.
Based on the current situation, PN looks set to win at least 10 to 15 seats in Selangor.
This is an improvement from the five seats PN currently has in the state, of which four were won when Bersatu was part of Harapan in 2018.
While PN is expected to reduce the total number of seats Harapan and BN control in the state, wresting the state away will be a tall order.
PN wipeout in Negeri Sembilan?
Over in Negeri Sembilan, if GE15 voting patterns continue, Harapan and BN can make a clean sweep of the state.
However, there are a small handful of seats where PN has a remote chance of winning.
One of these seats is Jeram Padang - a mixed seat where more than 30 percent of the electorate are Indians.
Traditionally, BN was represented by MIC in the constituency, but with the latter skipping the state polls, an Umno candidate has been fielded to defend the seat.
PN, meanwhile, is fielding a former MIC member Surash Sreenivasan, who had previously come in second place when contesting the seat as an independent in 2018.
MIC has been experiencing a wave of defections towards PN, which may work to Surash’s benefit and help increase the opposition’s vote share in the constituency from the 21 percent it received in GE15.
Penang inroads in Malay constituencies
Up north in Penang, while infighting between Gerakan and PAS has hampered PN’s campaign to some extent, the coalition is still expected to make inroads on both the island and the mainland.
Penang Harapan chief Chow Kon Yeow has said that the three Malay majority seats in Balik Pulau will be a tough fight where the margin for victory will be slim.
According to Chow, this includes Bayan Lepas, where Gerakan president Dominic Lau is contesting.
Lau has had a rocky campaign, with the local PAS snubbing him.
While central PAS leadership has issued orders to aid Gerakan, whether this will actually motivate Bayan Lepas PAS supporters to go out and vote remains to be seen.
Meanwhile, PN is also expected to pick up wins in Malay-majority seats in the Kepala Batas, Tasek Gelugor and Permatang Pauh parliamentary constituencies.
Another factor that may end up benefiting PN is infighting among Penang DAP, particularly after P Ramasamy and his followers were dropped as candidates.
Two of Ramasamy’s close associates are contesting as independents in DAP seats.
Muda-PSM factor
As for Muda and PSM, both parties are likely to become victims of the first-past-the-post election system.
With voters forced to make strategic choices, Muda and PSM - which are mostly contesting in Harapan seats - are unlikely to pick up any victories if constituents are determined to keep PN out.
Instead, the main challenge for both parties is whether or not they can keep their deposits.
Neither party appears to have had a strong response to its ground campaign efforts and ceramah.
However, Muda at least, appears to be putting in significant resources into media campaigns on social media, and even advertisement slots on urban radio station BFM.
The six state elections go to the polls on Saturday.
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