Hadi's Islam vs Anwar's Madani: Which will win?

 

As voters from some states return to the voting booth, while economic and bread and butter issues are in the minds of many voters, what may ultimately decide their choice are their concerns on race and religion.

These concerns will decide which of the two contending coalitions - Perikatan Nasional or Pakatan Harapan/BN - will emerge the winner in what some analysts see as an important run up and marker leading to the outcome of the next general election.

For non-Malay voters, the choice appears self evident. The Bersatu and PAS-dominated coalition is one with Malay and Islamic domination objectives at the forefront.

Their concerns and priorities - though not explicitly spelt out in their manifesto - is one which the two parties do not try to hide.

In fact, both Berstau and PAS leaders regularly flout and tout their Malay and Muslim credentials - and associated anti non-Malay and non-Muslim antagonisms - loudly come election time.

Although Gerakan and the Sabah Progressive Party are part of the PN coalition, they are really two fig leaves covering the naked political and socio-economic agenda of PN which is based primarily on the two R’s of race and religion.

PAS supporters

This agenda is now further bolstered by PN’s adoption of Dr Mahathir Mohamad’s 12-point document, the Malay Proclamation, to protect the interests of Malays, to unite them, and to restore the political power of Malays.

Gerakan’s participation in the state elections in Penang is regarded by many as not only a betrayal of its multiracial and liberal heritage. It is also seen as providing oxygen to PAS’ extreme position and the party’s ambition to become the leading political party of Malaysia.

Gerakan president Dominic Lau counting on the “Green Wave” may win in the Malay-majority seat of Bayan Lepas. Other Gerakan candidates, with Bersatu’s support, may also do better than previously.

But if the party’s candidates cannot convince Penang’s Chinese and Indian voters they are more than just window dressing in the larger scheme of PN’s ambitions, it could well make the beginning of the end for the party as any kind of force in Malaysia’s politics.

Gerakan president Dominic Lau (middle)

That would be a pity as a Third Force in the nation’s politics is needed - in Penang and in the other states.

Non-Malay and Malay electoral dilemmas

The electoral choice for the great majority of non-Malay voters appears to be mainly conditioned by their fear of a PN victory and the downfall of the current Harapan/BN government.

As succinctly, if somewhat brutally, expressed by Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim recently responding to a student from Kolej Matrikulasi Pulau Pinang who asked if he would scrap the quota system in higher education:

“If Anwar Ibrahim says scrap the quota system, we will lose all elections in this country and you will suffer more (if the country is run) by PAS and Bersatu. Understand that.”

For Malay voters, although more pressured by bread and butter issues than their non-Malay counterparts, the choice is largely between the two racial and religious agendas and appeal provided by Hadi and Anwar.

Umno appears to be a non-factor. Its historical position as the dominant party protecting Malay interests and grip on Malay votes was considerably weakened during the last GE and has not recovered to any noticeable extent.

The votes from Malay-majority constituencies are likely to confirm Umno as a declining force even if the party may help Harapan - mainly PKR candidiates - win against some of their PN challengers.

Malay vote transferability from Umno to PKR could be more pronounced for the Malay older generation. If this does take place, it may result in Harapan hanging on to power in the highly contested states of Selangor and Negri Sembilan.

This may provide hope to Umno’s current leaders of a recovery in the party’s decline and future prospects.

Umno members

The state elections will determine if Umno, led by its president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, is an asset or a liability for Anwar.

As explained above, Anwar wants to use Umno as a partner to win Malay votes he was unable to get during the general election. Yet, Umno continues to be seen as a shadow of the grand old party that dominated the Malay political ground for decades.

Bersatu subdued, PAS leads charge

Muhyiddin Yassin’s Bersatu, partly because of the corruption charges against him and his party colleague leaders, Wan Saiful Wan Jan and Adam Radlan, has largely kept a low profile even in the two southern states where it has more seats at stake and is in a dominant position ahead of PAS.

This subdued electioneering profile is also a recognition that the fusion of religious with racial identity issues played a major role in the success of the party during GE15 - even unexpectedly with the young Malay voters.

Hence, the expectation that reliance on a religious, nationalistic, and social media-driven youth strategy could provide the winning edge for PN in Selangor and Negeri Sembilan.

To an outside observer, the coming state elections - for the Malay electorate - appears to have its greatest stake in the kind of Islam, and its consequential repercussions on economy, culture, education, social practice, and everyday life that they want to see and have for themselves as well as the country’s non-Malay and non-Muslim communities

Will it be Hadi’s brand of supposedly pure, conservative, anti-liberal, and anti-progressive Islam or Anwar’s Madani with its proclaimed principles of sustainability, prosperity, respect, innovation, trust, and compassion, and guarantee to protect the rights and justice for non-Muslims that will prevail? - Mkini

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LIM TECK GHEE is a former senior official with the United Nations and World Bank.

The views expressed here are those of the author/contributor and do not necessarily represent the views of MMKtT.