Malaysia’s Asean chairmanship: bold promises or unrealistic expectations?

From Jamil A Ghani

As Malaysia prepares to assume the Asean chairmanship in 2025, expectations are high, and many see Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s leadership as the key to ushering the regional bloc into a new era of unity and progress.

Yet beneath this optimism lies a more sobering reality.

Asean is at a critical juncture, facing some of the most complex challenges in its history. Malaysia’s leadership, while influential, must be grounded in pragmatism.

Without careful guidance, the region could slip further into crisis, turning this chairmanship into an exercise in maintaining Asean unity amid growing tensions rather than achieving transformation.

Anwar’s vision for Asean is ambitious, focusing on economic resilience, diplomatic cooperation, and digital transformation. However, ambition alone will not be enough.

The weight of geopolitical realities – from rising competition between major powers to internal divisions – could easily derail these aspirations if Malaysia fails to manage expectations and prioritise strategic consolidation over bold but impractical promises.

Asean’s growth: consolidating progress or risking fragmentation?

Asean’s recent economic performance has been impressive, achieving a combined GDP of US$3.8 trillion in 2023, making it the world’s fifth-largest economy. Despite this achievement, intra-Asean trade has remained relatively low.

Anwar has rightly recognised the need to strengthen Asean’s economic frameworks during Malaysia’s chairmanship, particularly through the enhancement of regional trade and value chains.

However, merely signing agreements – such as the upcoming Asean Trade in Goods Agreement – will not be sufficient to secure the bloc’s long-term economic stability.

The real challenge for Malaysia will be navigating the fractured geopolitical landscape, where member states face increasing pressure to compete with each other and align with major global powers.

Can Putrajaya forge true economic cohesion in the face of these competing interests, or will Asean’s progress remain superficial? Without deeper integration, the region’s economic growth may begin to falter, leaving it vulnerable to external shocks.

Unresolved crises or leadership opportunities?

Perhaps the most pressing test for Malaysia will be steering Asean through two long-standing crises: Myanmar and the South China Sea.

Asean has been grappling with the aftermath of the 2021 military coup in Myanmar, which has plunged the country into political chaos and humanitarian disaster.

Despite the Five-Point Consensus, a regional plan aimed at fostering dialogue, and delivering humanitarian aid, progress has been limited due to the military junta’s intransigence.

Yet there are glimmers of hope – Myanmar has shown some willingness to engage in dialogue, and Malaysia’s diplomatic prowess will be key to facilitating these talks.

However, it is unlikely that Malaysia will resolve the Myanmar crisis in 2025. At best, Malaysia can lay the groundwork for future solutions, ensuring that Asean remains engaged.

Failure to make even incremental progress could further damage Asean’s credibility and raise questions about its relevance in resolving regional conflicts.

In the South China Sea, the stakes are higher. With several Asean countries, including Malaysia, locked in territorial disputes with China, this remains a flashpoint for potential conflict.

While Asean has been negotiating a Code of Conduct with China for years – a set of rules aimed at preventing conflict and ensuring peaceful navigation in the area – failure to keep the dialogue open could see tensions flare, potentially drawing the region into greater confrontation.

Malaysia cannot afford to overpromise here. While a final agreement may be out of reach, progress must be visible to maintain confidence in Asean’s ability to manage such high-stakes disputes.

Can Asean’s unity survive external pressures?

Maintaining Asean’s unity is no longer just an aspirational goal, it is a strategic necessity. As global powers like the US and China exert increasing influence in the region, Asean’s neutrality and cohesion are under siege.

Anwar has frequently underscored the need for the bloc to remain united and resist external fragmentation, but achieving this will require more than rhetoric.

Several member states are already gravitating toward major powers, complicating efforts to present a unified Asean front. Malaysia must navigate these complex dynamics carefully.

By focusing on incremental reforms, Anwar has an opportunity to preserve Asean’s core principles of neutrality and centrality without pushing for overambitious initiatives that could deepen the bloc’s internal divisions.

The stakes are high – if Asean splinters under Malaysia’s leadership, the entire region could find itself vulnerable to external manipulation.

Strategic patience or wasted time?

Anwar’s call to 

reclaim Asean’s convening power

 is bold, but boldness alone may fall short. Asean’s strength lies in consensus, and forcing rapid change without it risks fracturing relations within the bloc and with external partners.

With that said, Malaysia’s chairmanship cannot afford to be passive. One area where progress can be made is in advancing the Asean Digital Economic Framework Agreement, aimed at making it easier for businesses across Southeast Asia to trade and operate online.

This is key to building a stronger digital economy, and by encouraging more cross-border digital trade, Malaysia can help Asean stay competitive in a rapidly changing global market.

Malaysia’s Asean-Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) + China Summit proposal is also significant because it brings Asean nations together with the GCC and China.

This could pave the way for increased trade and investment, bolstering Asean’s economic resilience. However, it must be more than just another high-profile meeting, and deliver concrete outcomes that demonstrate Asean’s relevance globally.

Conclusion: a balanced approach for 2025 or missed opportunity?

As Malaysia takes the Asean chair, Anwar and his administration must strike a delicate balance between ambition and pragmatism.

The stakes are higher than ever while the challenges Asean faces are not just regional issues; they are crises that could define its future.

Malaysia has the opportunity to foster long-term progress, which will only materialise if it is willing to pursue consensus where possible and take decisive action as required.

By prioritising Asean’s internal cohesion, supporting diplomatic solutions, and advancing economic frameworks, Malaysia could guide the bloc through 2025 with strategic patience. However, is patience truly enough?

With Asean’s global relevance increasingly under question, the cost of waiting too long or playing it safe could be high. Malaysia will need to leave a lasting impact, not through small steps, but by ensuring Asean is resilient, united, and ready to face the crises ahead head-on.

Anything less could result in Malaysia’s leadership being remembered as another missed opportunity. - FMT

Jamil A Ghani is a PhD candidate at the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore.

The views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily reflect those of MMKtT.